Tornado Alley (PROG)

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The Real Republican Nightmare

October 06, 2006

An advance copy of Charlie Cook's National Journal column suggests the Mark Foley scandal is just a small part of the GOP's problem:

"In the big scheme of things, the development that poses far more of a danger to the Republican majorities is that, after a respite of five weeks or so, attention is shifting back to the war in Iraq, and away from 9/11, terrorism, national security, and falling gasoline prices. If the public’s focus had remained on that terrorism/lower-gas-prices constellation of issues, Republicans had a 50-50 chance of holding the House. In all likelihood, they would have held their Senate majority as well. But if the spotlight is on Iraq for much of the final stage of the campaign, the Republicans could well lose both chambers."

This observation is backed up [ http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/10/05/iraq_is_top_election_issue.html ] by the latest Pew Research poll that says Iraq is now the top election issue.

Meanwhile, the National Journal's new House Rankings [ http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/ ] are out with this note: "If the Republicans somehow keep control of Congress in the wake of all this, then the Democrats probably will file for Chapter 11 or be sued for political malpractice."

Key observation: Of the 30 most vulnerable seats in the nation, 29 are held by Republicans.

Copyright 2006 Taegan D. Goddard

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/10/06/the_real_republican_nightmare.html

[F6 note -- see also in particular (items linked in) http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13859465 and preceding and following]