Biotech Values

[dangerM]

GILD price hikes

... well, it's not only HCV that hurts. There is an upside of only 1.2-1.5bn in HIV _and_ other (minus 0.8-0.9bn for HIV patent expiries) on slide 34.

If I apply the January list price increase for HIV products in the U.S. to the Q4 HIV run rate this already yields about 1bn (= 3.7bn * 4 qtrs * 0.069 price increase). This does not speak for a much increasing market share in management's opinion even before patent expiries, especially as according to GSK's ViiV the HIV total market is (sadly enough) expanding ~ 13cpt a year! In addition to that, slide 34 even takes the full year sales instead of the run rate as starting point for demonstrating the delta effects.

So, well, I am quite interested what research we will read in reaction to that. If GILD's is lucky, everybody will focus on HCV

My 2c

dM


*https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180109006865/en/AHF-‘Shameless’-Gilead-Hikes-Key-AIDS-Drug

P.S. [EDIT]: It's quite funny the HCV slide shows the effect of competition whereas the HIV slide does only mention generics, but no real competition effects.