snp: Not that you asked ME, but.....
One of the best CNBC interviews (and that is not saying much, I might add) I saw this year was with Edward P. Owens, who runs the Vanguard Health Care mutual fund (VGHCX). This fund has had a stellar record with the best 10 and 15 year returns (annualized) in this sector.
He said something very prescient and relevant to your question to Zeev on MRK. He stated that he thought the large-cap pharmas, without exception, would be dead money for this decade due to a combination of:
1. Federal regulations which would cap profits on numerous drugs, especially for the elderly, and Federal pressure on the large companies to provide free or deeply discounted drugs for the uninsured indigent and elderly.
2. profit erosion from the generic drugmakers and increasing favoritism from gov't sponsored programs (Medicare & Medicare) to purchase generics for people on these programs.
3. increasing costs of advertising budgets.
4. onerous FDA rules and regulations for testing and bringing new drugs to market resulting in high costs of product development.
Simply put, this is a sector to be avoided, much like the airline industry sector. There will be profitable companies in the medical/health care sector, but they will NOT be the large pharmaceuticals.
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