Ubiquitech Software Corp (UBQU)

[ChampionOfTheSun]

$UBQU - A Valuation Analysis to Peer

Even with our little run so far, there seems to be alot of room north just to get to "conservative case normal"


So here is where we currently stand through the last 4 quarters which have been reported (Q4-Q3)
- $4.5M rev
- $2.5M gross margin
- $411K Net Income
- $554K - EBITDA (exclude interest and depreciation and amortization--- interest will lessen to 0 in the future, and the others we already paid for and are just accounting)


Our margin % is very strong compared to competition.
- POTN has "3x" our revenue in the last 9 months ($9.5M vs $3.3M)
- but POTN only has "2x" the gross margin ($3.5M vs $1.8M) from these sales
- and our overhead costs also lower - where they derived EBITDA of $650K the last 9 months, and we are at $350K
- Note if we magically doubled our sales to $6.6M revenue in 9 months, having a gross margin identical to theirs (~$3.5M) - our EBITDA would be $2.2M, which crushes their $650K.
- I shouldnt get ahead of myself, it isnt the case, just setting the stage - They are double our margin and double our net income, and we are aware that gap closes quickly... where our income can be higher than theirs on lower gross margin (and revenue), because by the time we pull even to that level on margin, our income blows theirs away.


Now that we see how our fundamentals line up, lets see how they are valued.
- It is worth noting, that their 570M shares, 1B max authorized --- and convertible notes 3x higher than ours, but at a rate 3x better --- more or less means we are apples to apples on share structure

- So they trade at $.1085 as of close on friday. And they've also been on a bit of a similar run, being $.06 earlier in the month.

- In any case - in my opinion that is not a company which is 5x more valuable than us. Based on the above, you would think it would be fair for us to be roughly half their value based on current margin and income. Yes they are growing faster, but we are at such a key tipping point of revenues dropping all the way to the bottom line now that I think you need to consider our potential for faster growth to the bottom line via minimal movement at the top line.


What I do not even get into - petmeds and crypto potential



My answer - $.05 safely, with alot of room for gravy

- this would be a valuation of $45M at 900M shares and only $35M if we got lucky and get off the hook around 700M shares
- which would be 10x or 7.8x revenue
- and remember --- our revenue means more than the competitions, because less of it goes out the door right away as a variable cost.




... now think about how absurd our valuation was 2 months ago


(just a little repost from the weekend, when many probably did not see it)