120km queue. Loading banned for a week and the queue reduces to 20km. Should make no difference to the exports on the basis loading will recommence and consistent for the 3 exports going through GS.
So MMC has been achieving 300kt per month and likely unchanged in Q4. double trailers means they are getting more across the border per truck.
If they had 2 wash plants running at 6Mt pa rate and 50% yield that means they can produce 500kt HCC per month. With 300kt border capacity it is no surprise they have mine stockpile and prudent to go down to 1 wash plant operating. HCC price at GS border now showing at over RMB1,100. Strengthening RMB and spot price hopefully north of $130. $65/t ebitda on 300kt per month implies annual ebitda of circa $240m.
HCC price continue to look firm. if they can sort the road and border, I am sure this company can produce and export 500kt pm HCC plus thermal coal bi-product. The rail has not moved for 10 years so forget that and hope the PRC border relations can be managed. Mongolia's president can obviously play havoc with this......
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