3rd Leg Trading

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Natural Gas Storage Figures For This Week

Summary

We expect a -50 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended Nov. 17.

A storage report of -50 Bcf would be compared to +2 Bcf last year and -26 Bcf for the five-year average.

No cold risk in any of the weather models in the 11-15 day outlook.

We expect a -50 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended Nov. 17. A storage report of -50 Bcf would be compared to +2 Bcf last year and -26 Bcf for the five-year average.

We revised higher our storage draw expectations from -47 Bcf last Friday to -50 Bcf. Our estimate is currently 3 Bcf higher than the ICE settlement report.

Natural gas continues to move lower today with weather for the first-week of December looking very bearish. (See our article from yesterday.)

What everyone is focused on in the 11-15 day outlook is that there is no cold spell risk present in any of the models. There's been a strong agreement that the cold spells are being seen in Asia and Europe, and US would be lucky to just have "normal" temps for the first-week of December now.

That's not the bullish start the bulls want, but that's also not the end of this winter. January and February are the most crucial months. Last year, December was unbelievably cold, while a really warm January and February pushed total heating degree days over the winter to one of the lowest on record.

Over the last two days, the price drop is reflected also in our storage forecasts. In total, storage was revised higher by 47 Bcf since last Friday.

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4126929-natural-gas-storage-figures-week?


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