AI
Friday, November 17, 2017 4:05:43 PM
Thanks, I try to be frank, but my knowledge of SIAF is far inferior to many posters here - and I am long in SIAF - so keep that in mind 
I am all in. Not something I would recommend, and it's also very untypical for me. I'll leave it up to you do judge whether that's because I have done a decent DD, or if I'm struck with a midlife-crises. However, I will tell you that it is at least partially the latter
I did sell 10% (?) of my holding after CC Q2, out of frustration, but I bought them back shortly after (I'm not a trader). I've only been a shareholder for 6 months, so my average is sub $3.
Buy, hold or sell? Yes, that is really a dilemma with SIAF. Is Solomon the type to hide bad news? Yes. Is he the type to dangle carrots? YES! Is he a scam? No (in my opinion). Has he been eager on short-term shareholder values in the past? No. Do we have indications that his focus has shifted? Yes (COSO and the PR about cash dividends and buybacks). All in all I find it very difficult to know how close we are to the triggers (although there are lot of signs that we are close, but they may be carrots), but I am more comfortable with going in too early than too late (well, I say that now, I might not say that if the PPS goes down a LOT more). I don't know when we'll hit a trigger and how low the PPS will go before we hit that trigger, but I do believe that once we do hit the trigger there will be many people wanting to join.
A general advice (although you should regard me as a novice so maybe you should advice me and not the other way around) is to consider how many shares you are comfortable having if the PPS were to dive further, and how many shares you "must" have when we hit a trigger. If you're lucky then the latter is lower than the first, and then you can buy shares to the "must" have level and then continue to add over a period of x days/weeks/months until you reach the first number (or we hit a trigger).
The only thing I "know" is that the PPS will not be 1.4$ at year end (although I don't know if it will be closer to 1.0$ or 10$)
I am all in. Not something I would recommend, and it's also very untypical for me. I'll leave it up to you do judge whether that's because I have done a decent DD, or if I'm struck with a midlife-crises. However, I will tell you that it is at least partially the latter
I did sell 10% (?) of my holding after CC Q2, out of frustration, but I bought them back shortly after (I'm not a trader). I've only been a shareholder for 6 months, so my average is sub $3.
Buy, hold or sell? Yes, that is really a dilemma with SIAF. Is Solomon the type to hide bad news? Yes. Is he the type to dangle carrots? YES! Is he a scam? No (in my opinion). Has he been eager on short-term shareholder values in the past? No. Do we have indications that his focus has shifted? Yes (COSO and the PR about cash dividends and buybacks). All in all I find it very difficult to know how close we are to the triggers (although there are lot of signs that we are close, but they may be carrots), but I am more comfortable with going in too early than too late (well, I say that now, I might not say that if the PPS goes down a LOT more). I don't know when we'll hit a trigger and how low the PPS will go before we hit that trigger, but I do believe that once we do hit the trigger there will be many people wanting to join.
A general advice (although you should regard me as a novice so maybe you should advice me and not the other way around) is to consider how many shares you are comfortable having if the PPS were to dive further, and how many shares you "must" have when we hit a trigger. If you're lucky then the latter is lower than the first, and then you can buy shares to the "must" have level and then continue to add over a period of x days/weeks/months until you reach the first number (or we hit a trigger).
The only thing I "know" is that the PPS will not be 1.4$ at year end (although I don't know if it will be closer to 1.0$ or 10$)
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