In my last I talked abt. Bonds, but meant LOC ! Well, here is a very good post from Yahoo board:
My Analysis RE HLSH...to $9/SH min..
by: placesontherun (41/M/Southern California)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/26/03 02:46 am
Msg: 102149 of 102149
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Top officials of HealthSouth, the rehabilitative hospital chain engulfed in an accounting scandal, expressed optimism Monday the company could avoid filing for bankruptcy, describing the company as solid and profitable.
Birmingham, Ala.-based HealthSouth (HLSH: news, chart, profile) expects consolidated net revenue of $4.1 billion for the next year. It expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $650 million. The company has $345 million in total cash, a figure it expects to grow.
During a conference for shareholders and creditors in New York, HealthSouth officials stressed that the company's financial situation will improve over the next three months.
"There is no assurance of where we are going," said HealthSouth Interim Chairman Joel Gordon. "But we feel confident if we have another 90 to 120 days . . . we think our company has an awful good chance of moving forward and avoiding bankruptcy."
They are sandbagging on the cash...they will book about 120M on the sale of that hospital, which is a wash as to the 117M in debt interest in escrow...add in another 150 million in net added cash from operations minimum...and HLSH has near 500M in cash right now..they can use it to partially pay off the 3.5 % CSD holders, fully pay them off, or even forego payment now and do a complete swap...they have the cash to give them options....this one is a no brainer to $7 per share minimum with EBIDTA earnings of 650 million plus..that would in my mind ballpark out to about a minimum of 280M net earnings, against a roughly 400M fully diluted share float....so extrapolating...280M/400M gets you a projected eps figure for 2004 of 70 cents per fully diluted share of common...and check the fundamentals of other companies in HLSH's space and look at the P/E multiples they trade at...over 20 for most of them...so then take 20 (.70) and you get a $14 share price at some point in 2004...and being even more conservative, take off 100M from earnings to settle lawsuits, pay fines etc...with a net income of 180M/400M shares (20) imputes a price of $9 per share, or a triple plus from where we are now..there are many rocks in the road of course....but this new turnaround management outfit has impressed me a lot..they hit the ground running and have endeavored to give the feds total and complete cooperation..very savvy and required...so I do see significantly higher share prices for HLSH..with the biggest pops to come when its shares are re-listed after the audit has passed muster with the SEC and PWC....comments on my analysis welcome...I need more raw numbers to round things out, but we can only go off of the numbers put out by the company in the release of 7-7-03 as viable, valid ones...as time goes by and the veil is lifted, this stock will pop up hard and fast...they are sandbagging the numbers and are doing better than they have advertised thus far..its classic underpromise and overperform mentality..just the kind the street likes... long HLSH...see you at $10, and sooner than you might think...
Happy trading
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
