I’m going to take this as an opportunity to double down and hold for 6 months.
In their CC this morning KERX estimated that of the 1.7 million Americans with NDD-CKD under the care of a nephrologist, approximately 650,000 are treated for IDA and another 250,000 – 400,000 could have IDA but are not treated today.
Auryxia cost about $3.50 per tablet and prescriptions are for between 3 and 12 tablets per day.
If they are able to capture even 1/4 of the patient population that’s 425,000 people, 3 tablets a day, 365 day’s a year, that’s $1.6 Billion per year.
And they’re not taking about it, but you have to imagine now that they’ve got FDA approval, prices are going up.
This drug will sell out like RLYP did, except it’s bigger than RLYP. RLYP got their PDFUA in October 2015 and were bought for $1.5 Billion in July 2016.
Right now everyone should just hang tight, keep track of prescription numbers and hang in because sooner than later we’re going to find ourselves 200 to 300% higher than we are right now.
