My wife worked on it in trial phase. I don't think PFE thought it would do these type of sales or that they would kick J&J's butt. The folks running these monster companies at the top are incredibly smart, but that doesn't mean they have crystal balls.
I think they thought Eliquis to be a blockbuster, but not like this. Last year PFE pulled the plug on a drug they had 2 bil plus invested in. They bought Medivation for 14 bil and the main drug was a complete bust, luckily there are salvageable assets. So as smart as management is they don't have crystal balls.
I think PFE has done amazing considering the monster drugs that have gone off patent the last 5 years. It is very hard to move the needle when you are the biggest. That is why I think they are buying something big. I guess BMY but could be wrong.
I think a big deal will be great for PFE and cement Ian Reade as a great CEO who took over PFE when it was in a state of turmoil.
For all the negative press pharma gets, and some deserved and most not, not many people realize that it now takes an average of 2 bil plus to get a drug approved. And most don't make it after blowing tons of money.
An interesting small pharma I am in VTGN, is going for a blockbuster depression drug. But they also have an interesting stem cell company that is working with a Bayer subsidiary. According to the CEO they are now at the cusp of being able able to determine whether a drug trial will cause liver or cardiac issues very early on, before a trial wastes money and time going in the wrong direction. Will be interesting to see how these new technologies streamline testing in the future.
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