justicewillwin, nice post and well thought out BUT someone correct me if I am wrong but I thought Equity Escrow holders can only receive cash and not shares from new company.
How could a possible share-for-value scenario look like -->
Only if AZ's and ron's theories come true!!!
Some facts: * WMIH has currently 206M outstanding common shares @ $0.75 * 30.7M warrants for KKR @ $1.32 * 30.7M warrants for KKR @ $1.43 * 10M commons from Series A if they convert * Series B currently convert @ $1.75 and are converted to 342M commons
Let's make some assumptions: * $10B coming back to the WMI-LT * these assets are illiquid and must be managed by a company * WMIH does a combined transaction -----> it buys a company that can manage these assets for around $600M (the cash from the Series B ==> 342M new common shares) -----> WMIH then "assumes" the $10B from the WMI-LT and issues 2B new shares, out of the 3.5B authorized shares which are ditributed among the escrow holders 75%/25%
Total outstanding shares is then 206M + 30.7M + 30.7M + 10M + 342M + 2,000M = 2,619M shares
Total equity of WMIH is then $154M + $600M + $10,000M = $10,754M
--> PPS = $10,754M / 2,619M = $4.10 (at the day of the announcement)
If $20B come back instead of $10B: --> PPS = 2 X $4.10 = $8.20 (at the day of the announcement)
If $25B come back instead of $10B: --> PPS = 2.5 X $4.10 = $10.25 (at the day of the announcement)
and so on...
They close somewhere below $1, announce such a deal pre-market and open with one of the PPS above, depending on the value of the assets coming back to the WMI-LT
Note: In the PPS I did not consider any positive P/E Ratio, only pure equity!
Possible? Comments? Flaws in my calculations?!?
Again, only if AZ's and ron's theories come true!!!