AI
Friday, August 22, 2003 8:26:01 PM
*** Gold and Silver COT #'s ***
Hi ml,
I'm going to have to call this weeks gold COT numbers "The battle of the titans."
My call from yesterday afternoon w/r to the Commercial gold short numbers was very much on the money......
"Was just doing some adding of the Comex Gold Futures open interest changes from last Wednesday (8-13) to this Tuesday, the weekly COT reporting period. Fwiw, It grew by some 21k contracts for that week and if the usual average, based on my eyeballed estimates, of 85% to 90% being additional Commercial shorts (as is usually the case with a rising PoG), it would put the number of commercial shorts on tomorrow's report at just over 120K, which would be the second largest number in the past year, only exceeded by last February's 126K or so that benefitted from the plunge in the PoG from 385ish to 330ish in the weeks that followed.
I think that kind of number will strike some fear, or at the very least, apprehension in the minds and/or hearts of the weaker longs, and hopefully, precipitate a selloff that will enable me to restock my larder with some of the extras I have come to feel naked without.
Now extend that brownish line at the extreme right side of the chart to just below the 120000 level and tell me that doesn't look bearish! <VBG>
Oh yeah, I almost forget to mention that I need a correspondingly large increase in the number of bullish small specs to make my fantasy a bit more plausible. <GGG> " #msg-134755
As it turns out, the estimated increase of the # of commercial gold shorts was pretty accurate and the 125K+ represents the second highest weekly total shown on the chart above , but as you can see, I didn't get my hoped for increase in the small speculative longs as the number was virtually unchanged for the fourth week in a row, which, btw, I consider to be potentially bullish as the chart shows there to be room, historically speaking, for another 20K or more to jump in if the train appears to be leaving w/o them. <gg>
The big surprise to me was in the growth of the number of bullish large speculators, who I presume didn't became "large" speculators because they were stupid and now promises to be one heckuva a battle before this conflict gets resolved.
Like Sundance asking Butch, "who are those guys?", I find myself wishing I could find out who some of these large speculators are and if there are some who are willing to take delivery of the bulk of the 269 contracts still open in the COMEX August futures?
The recent sudden rise in the 30 day, 60 day and 6 month gold lease rates may be indicative of the commercials getting some 'cash' bullion reinforcements to put themselves in a better position to try to cap the PoG before it garners enough momentum to break the barrier that, imo, exists between $372 and $376.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/g_leaserates.html
As stated earlier, it should prove be one heckuva a battle and for the first time in many moons, I tend to think that the gold commercials may be in for more than they bargained for.
Yes indeed, The Battle Of The Titans promises to be a bloody affair.....
Silver, otoh, looks somewhat overdone for now with the small specs replacing the large specs in the bullish futures camp. Not at all what I'd want to see if I were mega long silver stocks (which I'm not), although it would seem reasonable to think a spirited rally in gold to new highs could very well give silver enough ooomph to get the shorts running there as well.
ml, we sure do live in interesting times, don't we?
Stay tuned!
Btw, here are the actual numbers....
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
Enjoy the weekend.
Hi ml,
I'm going to have to call this weeks gold COT numbers "The battle of the titans."
My call from yesterday afternoon w/r to the Commercial gold short numbers was very much on the money......
"Was just doing some adding of the Comex Gold Futures open interest changes from last Wednesday (8-13) to this Tuesday, the weekly COT reporting period. Fwiw, It grew by some 21k contracts for that week and if the usual average, based on my eyeballed estimates, of 85% to 90% being additional Commercial shorts (as is usually the case with a rising PoG), it would put the number of commercial shorts on tomorrow's report at just over 120K, which would be the second largest number in the past year, only exceeded by last February's 126K or so that benefitted from the plunge in the PoG from 385ish to 330ish in the weeks that followed.
I think that kind of number will strike some fear, or at the very least, apprehension in the minds and/or hearts of the weaker longs, and hopefully, precipitate a selloff that will enable me to restock my larder with some of the extras I have come to feel naked without.
Now extend that brownish line at the extreme right side of the chart to just below the 120000 level and tell me that doesn't look bearish! <VBG>
Oh yeah, I almost forget to mention that I need a correspondingly large increase in the number of bullish small specs to make my fantasy a bit more plausible. <GGG> " #msg-134755
As it turns out, the estimated increase of the # of commercial gold shorts was pretty accurate and the 125K+ represents the second highest weekly total shown on the chart above , but as you can see, I didn't get my hoped for increase in the small speculative longs as the number was virtually unchanged for the fourth week in a row, which, btw, I consider to be potentially bullish as the chart shows there to be room, historically speaking, for another 20K or more to jump in if the train appears to be leaving w/o them. <gg>
The big surprise to me was in the growth of the number of bullish large speculators, who I presume didn't became "large" speculators because they were stupid and now promises to be one heckuva a battle before this conflict gets resolved.
Like Sundance asking Butch, "who are those guys?", I find myself wishing I could find out who some of these large speculators are and if there are some who are willing to take delivery of the bulk of the 269 contracts still open in the COMEX August futures?
The recent sudden rise in the 30 day, 60 day and 6 month gold lease rates may be indicative of the commercials getting some 'cash' bullion reinforcements to put themselves in a better position to try to cap the PoG before it garners enough momentum to break the barrier that, imo, exists between $372 and $376.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/g_leaserates.html
As stated earlier, it should prove be one heckuva a battle and for the first time in many moons, I tend to think that the gold commercials may be in for more than they bargained for.
Yes indeed, The Battle Of The Titans promises to be a bloody affair.....
Silver, otoh, looks somewhat overdone for now with the small specs replacing the large specs in the bullish futures camp. Not at all what I'd want to see if I were mega long silver stocks (which I'm not), although it would seem reasonable to think a spirited rally in gold to new highs could very well give silver enough ooomph to get the shorts running there as well.
ml, we sure do live in interesting times, don't we?
Stay tuned!
Btw, here are the actual numbers....
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
Enjoy the weekend.
Dan 
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