>>My strategy vis-à-vis pre-phase-3 buying is simple: Bet on phase-3 being successful in cases where the drug’s MoA is well-understood and efficacy has effectively been established in phase-2, thus limiting the phase-3 risk to the surfacing of a latent safety problem.
Exactly. FGEN's roxa falls into this category too.
Most of the time I try to bet earlier than Ph 111. And I can't ever see myself playing something like an Alzheimer Ph III.