Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

"Here is another thingie I got today. EPS for SPX upped to $60 for 2004. Doing the numbers by slappin a conservative 20 PE on that we get 1200 SPX in 04. That's a cool 20% from here and that's fair value. Now how can you get the strength to short that with the tape as strong as it is?"
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duper...

LOL -- do you really believe that number??? Is that using EBITDA, or what other bogus "pro-forma" method of reporting earnings by excluding everything that had a negative impact on the bottom line?

Should that number actually be correct, then there is some justification in the current rally, although a 20X PE for next year's earnings is still very high from any historical standpoint. The reality though, is that I seriously doubt that earnings on any real basis will be anything even close to $60, and quite possibly not even half that much. Current GAAP earnings are just a shade over $30 and real (core) earnings are under $25.

I guess it is just a matter of how much bogus accounting, earnings, and balance sheets the street and the public are willing to swallow.

mlsoft