Tuesday, September 19, 2017 3:59:42 PM
The Real Test of the Iran Deal
The agreement doesn’t guarantee that Tehran will never produce nuclear weapons—because no agreement could do so.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who like other GOP presidential candidates opposes the Iran nuclear deal, with anti-deal protesters in
Washington Jim Bourg / Reuters
James Fallows Jul 28, 2015 Global
A week ago I volunteered my way into an Atlantic debate .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/iran-nuclear-deal-goldberg-frum-beinart/398816/ .. on the merits of the Iran nuclear agreement. The long version of the post is here .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ ; the summary is that the administration has both specific facts and longer-term historic patterns on its side in recommending the deal.
On the factual front, I argued that opponents had not then (and have not now) met President Obama’s challenge to propose a better real-world alternative to the negotiated terms. Better means one that would make it less attractive for Iran to pursue a bomb, over a longer period of time. Real world means not the standard “Obama should have been tougher” carping but a specific demand that the other countries on “our” side, notably including Russia and China, would have joined in insisting on, and that the Iranians would have accepted.
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Related Story
Why History Gives Obama the Benefit of the Doubt on Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/
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“What’s your better idea?” is a challenge any honest opponent must accept. If this deal fails—which means, if the U.S. Congress rejects an agreement that the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran have accepted—then something else will happen, and all known “somethings” involve faster Iranian progress toward a bomb.
On historical judgment, I said that for two reasons the supporters of the deal should get the benefit of the doubt. The short-term reason is that nearly everyone who in 2015 is alarmist about Iran was in 2002 alarmist about Iraq. You can find exceptions, but only a few. That doesn’t prove that today’s alarmists are wrong, but in any other realm it would count. The longer-term reason is that the history of controversial diplomatic agreements through the past century shows that those recommending “risks for peace” have more often proven right than their opponents. (Don’t believe me? Go back .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ .. and consider the past examples.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/the-iran-debate-moves-on/399713/
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Trump’s case against the Iran nuclear deal has very little to do with nuclear weapons
“It makes him feel like a cuck every 90 days.”
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Sep 13, 2017, 2:30pm EDT
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/13/16301160/trump-iran-deal-why-cancel
The agreement doesn’t guarantee that Tehran will never produce nuclear weapons—because no agreement could do so.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who like other GOP presidential candidates opposes the Iran nuclear deal, with anti-deal protesters in
Washington Jim Bourg / Reuters
James Fallows Jul 28, 2015 Global
A week ago I volunteered my way into an Atlantic debate .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/iran-nuclear-deal-goldberg-frum-beinart/398816/ .. on the merits of the Iran nuclear agreement. The long version of the post is here .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ ; the summary is that the administration has both specific facts and longer-term historic patterns on its side in recommending the deal.
On the factual front, I argued that opponents had not then (and have not now) met President Obama’s challenge to propose a better real-world alternative to the negotiated terms. Better means one that would make it less attractive for Iran to pursue a bomb, over a longer period of time. Real world means not the standard “Obama should have been tougher” carping but a specific demand that the other countries on “our” side, notably including Russia and China, would have joined in insisting on, and that the Iranians would have accepted.
--
Related Story
Why History Gives Obama the Benefit of the Doubt on Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/
--
“What’s your better idea?” is a challenge any honest opponent must accept. If this deal fails—which means, if the U.S. Congress rejects an agreement that the U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran have accepted—then something else will happen, and all known “somethings” involve faster Iranian progress toward a bomb.
On historical judgment, I said that for two reasons the supporters of the deal should get the benefit of the doubt. The short-term reason is that nearly everyone who in 2015 is alarmist about Iran was in 2002 alarmist about Iraq. You can find exceptions, but only a few. That doesn’t prove that today’s alarmists are wrong, but in any other realm it would count. The longer-term reason is that the history of controversial diplomatic agreements through the past century shows that those recommending “risks for peace” have more often proven right than their opponents. (Don’t believe me? Go back .. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/history-obama-iran-deal-success/398915/ .. and consider the past examples.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/07/the-iran-debate-moves-on/399713/
---[
Trump’s case against the Iran nuclear deal has very little to do with nuclear weapons
“It makes him feel like a cuck every 90 days.”
Updated by Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Sep 13, 2017, 2:30pm EDT
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/9/13/16301160/trump-iran-deal-why-cancel
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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