STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Prepare to bundle up! Colder temperatures than last year are likely for the northeastern United States and the Midwest, predicts Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com’s chief long-range forecaster.
According to Bastardi's preliminary seasonal outlook, the winter in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to begin with mild temperatures before turning significantly colder in January and February as cold air pours down from Canada. Overall, New York City and Boston are expected to average slightly below normal for the three-month winter period of December through February.
The winter along the East Coast and Gulf Coast will be marked by stormy weather, because of the pattern created by the El Niño that formed this summer and was identified by Bastardi in the late spring.
An El Niño, a cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters, directs strong wind currents that tend to hinder hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin during the summer, and lead to a more active southern jet stream in the winter, which creates a wetter-than-normal pattern for the South and Southeast United States. This precipitation works its way up the East Coast, bringing more storms to the region.
"While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," Bastardi says.
"Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow."
Added Bastardi, "Given the overall pattern and the water temperature profile we expect, the region will likely see one or two major Nor'easters."
According to Ken Reeves, AccuWeather.com’s director of forecast operations, "While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period. This will lead to consumers needing more heating oil or natural gas than they did during last year's exceptionally mild winter."