Its true people could lie about their experience level but my guess is the majority would give you accurate data especially if you allow them a range. I honestly don't know who would do better I guess thats why they play the game as they say in sports.
Your comment on conservative entries not winning. My guess is everyone who entered did so with the thought of winning. Now it may turn out that our picks followed more of the herd (or is it flock) but there is no way to know that until after the picks are in. I don't have an in with Mr Sheep.