MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[exwannabe]

For fun I will take a shot on the numbers.

The Deerfield loan is at about $58M as of now. This includes the two payments post 10-Q.

If they sell off, then they could go one of two ways. Sell it as a physical plant or as the Afrezza franchise.

The plant is hard to value, but here are some clues. It is on the books for $28M, but that is depreciated down from $128M. If the facilities are generally usable for mfg of biologics, then it might be well more than the $28M.

As far as the Afrezza franchise, hard to come up with any valuation w/o being absurd. But here is a try:

Present Q numbers:

$1.2M rev
$0.4M gross margin
$15M SGA
$3.8M R&D

Speculative forward Q numbers:

$20M rev
$10M gross margin
$8M SGA
$1M R&D

That would net out to about $60M or so forward valuation. But will take at least $20M to get there while they bleed. Furthermore, they will not be able to sell w/o a deep discount given the numbers to date indicating the spec numbers are unlikely.

I suspect a downtown cleanup project to increase real estate values in Danbury is Deefields best bet.



BTW: I know my "speculative" numbers are off the farm in terms of being unreasonable. Their purpose is to show how bad off they are. Even with unreasonably projections it still fails.