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Re: Drmyke3 post# 89001

Wednesday, 09/13/2006 3:13:57 PM

Wednesday, September 13, 2006 3:13:57 PM

Post# of 326434
So drmyke ...

... re: "Now what kind of revenue is it going to take to produce the share price that some people are predicting?"

Have you seen the answer yet?

3% net margins and a 50 P/E gives us a buck a share on 2/3 of a billion dollars in revenue.


Fidelity screens out 307 companies as "software" companies, and out of those, 12 have a P/E est. for this year >= 50, and if I screen down for those having a profit margin of 3.2% (the market median for ALL companies) or better, I get left with 6 companies.

So, it's possible.

jonesie

p.s. I suppose all of this will be moot for a while if Rupert or Chernin announce they're buying NEOM for $2 billion today, or whatever else is going to happen in 10 seconds from some time ;) But it's about time I went thru the numbers myself anyway, and even got an idea of what the company is projecting for margins, net and gross.

p.p.s. The 6 companies are:

Company----------Sym---P/E'06est.-----Prof.Mrgn.

ADVENT SOFTWARE ADVS --- 73.9 ---------- 8.4%

ELECTRONIC ARTS ERTS --- 97.2 ---------- 7.3%

INTERACTIVE INT. ININ -- 52.8 ---------- 5.4%

CATAPULT COMM CATT - 123.9 ---------- 5.9%

SALESFORCE.COM CRM ---- 159.6 ---------- 5.1%

ULTIMATE SFTWR ULTI ---- 61.9 ---------- 3.6%

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