Wednesday, September 13, 2006 3:13:57 PM
So drmyke ...
... re: "Now what kind of revenue is it going to take to produce the share price that some people are predicting?"
Have you seen the answer yet?
3% net margins and a 50 P/E gives us a buck a share on 2/3 of a billion dollars in revenue.
Fidelity screens out 307 companies as "software" companies, and out of those, 12 have a P/E est. for this year >= 50, and if I screen down for those having a profit margin of 3.2% (the market median for ALL companies) or better, I get left with 6 companies.
So, it's possible.
jonesie
p.s. I suppose all of this will be moot for a while if Rupert or Chernin announce they're buying NEOM for $2 billion today, or whatever else is going to happen in 10 seconds from some time ;) But it's about time I went thru the numbers myself anyway, and even got an idea of what the company is projecting for margins, net and gross.
p.p.s. The 6 companies are:
Company----------Sym---P/E'06est.-----Prof.Mrgn.
ADVENT SOFTWARE ADVS --- 73.9 ---------- 8.4%
ELECTRONIC ARTS ERTS --- 97.2 ---------- 7.3%
INTERACTIVE INT. ININ -- 52.8 ---------- 5.4%
CATAPULT COMM CATT - 123.9 ---------- 5.9%
SALESFORCE.COM CRM ---- 159.6 ---------- 5.1%
ULTIMATE SFTWR ULTI ---- 61.9 ---------- 3.6%
... re: "Now what kind of revenue is it going to take to produce the share price that some people are predicting?"
Have you seen the answer yet?
3% net margins and a 50 P/E gives us a buck a share on 2/3 of a billion dollars in revenue.
Fidelity screens out 307 companies as "software" companies, and out of those, 12 have a P/E est. for this year >= 50, and if I screen down for those having a profit margin of 3.2% (the market median for ALL companies) or better, I get left with 6 companies.
So, it's possible.
jonesie
p.s. I suppose all of this will be moot for a while if Rupert or Chernin announce they're buying NEOM for $2 billion today, or whatever else is going to happen in 10 seconds from some time ;) But it's about time I went thru the numbers myself anyway, and even got an idea of what the company is projecting for margins, net and gross.
p.p.s. The 6 companies are:
Company----------Sym---P/E'06est.-----Prof.Mrgn.
ADVENT SOFTWARE ADVS --- 73.9 ---------- 8.4%
ELECTRONIC ARTS ERTS --- 97.2 ---------- 7.3%
INTERACTIVE INT. ININ -- 52.8 ---------- 5.4%
CATAPULT COMM CATT - 123.9 ---------- 5.9%
SALESFORCE.COM CRM ---- 159.6 ---------- 5.1%
ULTIMATE SFTWR ULTI ---- 61.9 ---------- 3.6%
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