MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[exwannabe]

Eventually the trend becomes very positive on Afrezza.

When?

This is a commercial venture, not dev stage bio. "Positive" implies they can be profitable.

They need something like 10,000 scripts a week for break even. The 2-1/2 year run rate ran up to 650/w or so when SNY gave up. Now it is at 350/w or so and longs chear when it bounces up by a few dozen.

The customers that try it drop it. Less than a 10% "stick" rate. Likely even worse as there should be a growing refill number if even a few become happy campers.

The endos see the results, they put customers on it, and they fail. Think they will keep switching patients in the future?

The dosing issue is not solved with the third round of new and improved "packs". The company never made any real attempt to solve that issue clinically, and with that they fail.

It is a good product for the type 2 needle phobics. But that is too small a market to keep this thing afloat. I would not be surprised to see a BK around Fall.