Biotech Values

[mcbio]

SNY/ZEAL.CO—Based on slides 7 and 8 from the deck you posted, Soliqua appears to have a bright future. I.e., the US commercial uptake (slide 7) is impressive given that there still is a lot of headroom with respect to reimbursement (slide 8).

In short, Soliqua looks like a well-executed lifecycle management answer to SNY’s loss of patent protection on Lantus.

p.s. MRK’s Januvia (including Janumet) is selling at a $5.3B annualized global run rate.

Thanks DD. Although Zealand shares have rebounded a bit, it looks like market cap is still just around $540M, which doesn't strike me as all that expensive if you believe Soliqua has a bright future (given ZEAL gets low double-digit royalty). Beyond Soliqua, ZEAL still has full rights to glepaglutide for which they just reported positive P2 results against short-bowel syndrome (https://cws.huginonline.com/Z/136974/PR/201706/2113990_5.html). I listened to their update CC on 6/22 and they estimate there are between 20,000 to 40,000 SBS patients across the U.S. and Europe. They also indicated that Shire's Gattex for SBS did just over $200M in revenue in 2016 and it only treated about 1,000 of those patients. Management also indicated that 2020 estimates for Gattex were $600M. ZEAL thinks an advantage of their drug could be that they have a liquid formulation. Beyond the SBS drug, they also hold full rights to dasiglucagon, which also recently reported positive P2 data (https://cws.huginonline.com/Z/136974/PR/201706/2115011_5.html ). They seemed excited about the potential for this drug as part of an artificial pancreas in the future.