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Re: ReturntoSender post# 6755

Monday, 09/11/2006 7:49:12 PM

Monday, September 11, 2006 7:49:12 PM

Post# of 12809
Feom Briefing.com: 4:20 pm : While today's trading paled in importance to a solemn remembrance of the five-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, investors Monday juggled an encouraging sell-off in commodities and mixed sentiment about the tech sector against renewed concerns of decelerating profit growth.

Oil prices fell for a sixth straight day -- the longest losing streak in nearly three years -- and gold prices plunged 3.2% to close under $600 an ounce for the first time since June. That combined retreat eased the worst of inflation fears, but weakness and the loss of leadership from the S&P 500's biggest earnings drivers -- Energy (-3.1%) and Materials (-2.7%) -- created doubts as to whether the S&P 500 can sustain double-digit profit growth. The sell-off in commodities exacerbated ongoing concerns about a slowing economy, especially on the heels of a press report out this morning discussing studies done by some Wall Street investment banks on the prospects for a recession.

The diminishing desire to own commodity-related stocks presented opportunities to rotate into underperforming areas like Technology -- the only sector sporting a loss on the year. The sector was in focus and under pressure early after Dell (DELL 21.19 -0.46) delayed its Form 10-Q filing, suspended share buybacks and cancelled its analyst meeting. However, Texas Instruments (TXN 31.76 +0.76) showing strength ahead of its mid-quarter update, and Freescale Semiconductor (FSL.B 36.84 +5.90) surging 19% to a 52-week high amid reports that a consortium of private equity firms is nearing a deal to acquire it for more than $16 bln, renewed enthusiasm throughout the struggling semiconductor group.

Consumer Discretionary also provided some notable leadership. Aside from another sharp pullback in oil prices easing concerns about consumption patterns, Best Buy (BBY 47.74 +1.43) rallied in anticipation of a strong Q2 earnings report tomorrow while the likes of Home Depot (HD 35.01 +0.73) and Lowes Cos. (LOW 27.84 +0.60) got a lift after Chicago's Mayor Daley vetoed a "living wage" ordinance requiring big box retailers to pay workers more.

In the absence of any scheduled economic reports, the market also looked to more Fed speak to get an idea as to what policy makers will do at the next FOMC meeting on September 20. Among the Fed officials in focus, St. Louis Fed President Poole saying the economy is "really not fragile, it's robust," and reminding investors that inflation is expected to come down in coming quarters, relieved some of the market's worries about interest rates. DJ30 +4.73 NASDAQ +7.46 SOX +2.4% SP500 +0.62 XOI -2.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1620/1367/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1743/1457/1.58 bln

4:35PM Texas Instruments Q3 mid-quarter update (TXN) 31.78 +0.78 : Co sees Q3 EPS from continuing operations, including sbc, of $0.44-0.46 vs. previous range of $0.42-0.48, consensus $0.45. Co sees Q3 revs of $3.71-3.87 bln vs. previous range of $3.63-3.95 bln, $3.8 bln consensus. Co sees Q3 Semis revs of $3.53-3.67 bln vs. previous range of $3.45-3.75 bln. Co sees Educational & Productivity revs of $180-200 mln unchanged vs. previous range of $180-200 mln.

4:30PM Cree files lawsuit against BridgeLux for patent infringement (CREE) 18.90 +0.67 : Co announces that it has filed suit against BridgeLux for infringement of U.S. Patent Nos. 6,657,236 and 5,686,738. The suit, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina, seeks monetary damages and injunctive relief to prohibit BridgeLux from infringing these patents.

1:40 pm OPEC Maintains Production Quotas

As expected, OPEC is maintaining production quotas, but will consider a cut in December. After two days of meetings in Vienna, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has voted to keep production at current levels despite free-falling oil prices. Easing tensions with Iran, a well supplied oil market, a mild hurricane season, and concerns over the pace of global economic growth have sent oil from $75 to $66 per barrel over the last month. Still, prices are still above year-ago levels and triple the price floor established by the cartel 5 years ago.

OPEC, which supplies 40% of the world's crude oil, has maintained its current production level of 28 mln barrels since July of 2005 in order to ease crude prices. But geopolitical tensions and speculation have ruled over the energy markets, sending prices to historic highs and making OPEC irrelevant in terms of price control. Members, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, have been pumping at or near capacity, reaping a windfall in oil revenues.

Recently, Saudi Arabia has been cutting production, pumping 9.2 mln barrels last month - 6% below peak levels reached in 2004. Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, "We are very happy with the situation as it is." Currently, crude oil inventories are 12% above the 5-year historical average, according to the Department of Energy's weekly stockpiles report. Well-supplied market conditions coupled with slowing demand were the basis for our recent downgrade of the Energy sector from Overweight to Market Weight.

Qatari's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah echoed comments made by Venezuela's oil minister that OPEC may have to cut production. Crude for October delivery dropped 1.8% or 1.18 cents to $65.07 per barrel on the news. Price weakness is typical during the fall shoulder months as the market transitions from the peak driving season to the winter heating season. Today's vote indicates that prices have yet to cross OPEC's threshold - meaning if crude drops into the high fifties or low sixty dollars per barrel, it increases the possibility that members will vote to cut production at its next meeting, which takes place in December.

--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com

11:14 am Newell Rubbermaid (NWL)

28.61 +1.61: Consumer products company Newell Rubbermaid has been engaged in an extended restructuring process that has been accented by a decision to divest non-core businesses. Today it has written another chapter in that restructuring story with an announcement that it will sell its Little Tikes division to MGA Entertainment, Inc., which is the maker of the popular Bratz line of dolls.

Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed. It was indicated, however, that the division will be reclassified as discontinued operations and that Newell Rubbermaid expects to record a net gain of $15-25 million in the fourth quarter when the transaction closes.

In 2005 the Little Tikes unit contributed approximately $250 million, or roughly 4.0%, of Newell Rubbermaid's total revenues. On account of its reclassification to discontinued operations, the company's full-year diluted EPS from continuing operations is expected to be pinched by $0.03-0.04, split evenly between the third and fourth quarters. Despite the negative impact, Newell Rubbermaid is leaving the full-year earnings per share outlook it provided in July of $1.75-1.85, excluding restructuring charges, unchanged.

The market has responded favorably to today's news as it appreciates the ongoing effort to focus on brands that provide it with the best opportunity to bolster its profit prospects. Newell Rubbermaid's affirmation of the third quarter earnings outlook, too, along with the full-year view, has created a sense of optimism that the company is indeed on the right track behind the leadership of CEO Mark Ketchum. As noted after its second quarter earnings report, we like what we see unfolding at Newell Rubbermaid and continue to stand by the stock as a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

10:29 am Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)

36.40 -0.78: Shares in Campbell Soup Co. lost ground Monday morning after the company said it saw fourth quarter earnings of $0.18 excluding a $14 million tax benefit, $4 million in charges associated with the repatriation of earnings from non-U.S. subsidiaries under the provisions of the American Jobs Creation Act and $61 million of expenses in discontinued operations related to the divestiture of the company's U.K. and Irish businesses. That compared to a Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.23.

Campbell, which has a market cap of about $14.88 billion, said it saw revenues rise 3.6% year over year to $1.45 billion versus the $1.55 billion consensus.

The Camden, N.J. food company, whose brands include Pepperidge Farm cookies, said it expects earnings growth of 5% to 7% for the fiscal year of 2007, equating to $1.73 versus consensus of $1.91. Campbell sees revenue growth of 3% to 4% which equates to $7.56 billion to $7.63 billion versus $7.84 billion consensus.

The company plans to report new pro forma earnings beginning in fiscal 2007 based on adjusted earnings from continuing operations combined with pro forma impact of the anticipated use of $620 million of the net proceeds from the divestiture to repurchase approximately 17 million shares.

While the company was pressured by costs from the sale of its U.K. and Irish businesses, Douglas Conant, Campbell President and Chief Executive Officer, said that in the latest period the company exceeded company expectations for earnings while increasing spending on advertising in its U.S. businesses. In addition, he said, the company achieved successful distribution of its lower sodium soups in the U.S.

Briefing.com took a bullish stance on Campbell Soup in May, noting the defensive nature of the stock and that the company is now trying to carve out new product niches for itself. Indeed, Campbell's improved its gross margin, consistent with its goal for the year and achieved a record level of cash flow from operations in fiscal 2006. That enabled the company to pay down debt, buy back shares and increase its dividend while continuing to invest in core growth initiatives such as its lower sodium soup and premium refrigerated soup.

--Christine Marie Nielsen, Briefing.com

10:10 am Dell Inc. (DELL)

21.65: Dell Inc. on Monday said it will delay filing its fiscal second quarter report, due to questions raised in connection with a previously announced informal investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission into accounting issues and a subsequent internal review. The Round Rock, Texas-based company also said it suspended its share repurchase program and postponed an analyst meeting scheduled for September 13, as a result of the ongoing probe.

Shares of the company fell more than 5% on the news. The stock is down approximately 30% since the beginning of the year, mired by sluggish sales in the company's core business, along with a host of other problems. At the current level, shares are trading at roughly 16.9x forward earnings.

The recent investigations have shown that Dell may have misstated prior period financial reports, including issues related to accruals, reserves and other balance sheet items, which may affect previously reported financial results. The SEC requests for information are joined by a similar request from the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, who has subpoenaed documents related to the company's financial reporting from 2002 to the present, Dell said in its statement.

The company, in cooperation with an internal audit committee, is continuing to investigate the matter fully, but has not yet determined the possible impact of any accounting issues. However, the company said it plans to file the second quarter report "as soon as possible."

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

09:07 am NASDAQ (NDAQ)

29.18: It's apparent that global consolidation continues in the exchange arena as word spreads that Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. is in talks to acquire Nordic and Baltic stock exchange operator OMX AB.

According to media reports, the talks are still at a very early stage, and Nasdaq continues to view an acquisition of the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L), in which it has amassed a stake of over 25%, as a high priority.

Chief executive of the Nasdaq Stock Market Inc., Bob Greifeld, said on a conference call with analysts in July that this is a transition year for the company. In addition to pondering takeover bids, the company is integrating its Inet electronic trading platform.

The purchase of OMX, which has been the subject of speculation for purchases by other buyers, would certainly be a plus on terms of expanding its global reach. Nasdaq's ambition to be a leading force in driving concentration in the hot exchange space, combined with the fact that the stock is at about half of trailing 12-month earnings of competitor NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX) and that Nasdaq has seen about a 19% quarterly earnings growth year over year, make the stock a good buy at this time.

(Disclosure: Briefing.com has a business relationship with Nasdaq)

--Christine Marie Nielsen, Briefing.com

08:51 am Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)

22.83: Homebuilder Standard Pacific Corp. on Friday warned that third quarter profit would be "materially below" its previous guidance, due to an increase in cancellation rates and softer demand related to the continued slowdown in the U.S. housing market. Shares of the company, which are down about 38% since the beginning of the year, traded lower in pre-market activity based on the news.

Standard Pacific said net new orders fell 58% in the first two months of the quarter, while gross orders were down about 30% versus the year ago period. Orders were off meaningfully in Southern California, Northern California, Florida, and Arizona, but up in Texas, it added. The company's backlog as of August 31 stood at 4,837 pre-sold homes valued at approximately $1.8 billion.

Based on the current negative order trends, the Irvine, California-based builder expects third quarter earnings to be materially below its previous forecast of $0.80 to $0.85 per share. That compares with analysts' estimate of $0.81 per share, according to Reuters Estimates. It also said it will lower its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year, and will provide an update at the end of October, with its third quarter earnings release.

Standard Pacific is the fourth major homebuilder in the past week to temper its outlook as the nation's housing market cools. Earlier, KB Home (KBH) and Beazer Homes (BZH) cut their earnings forecasts for the full year, while Lennar Corp. (LEN) lowered its third quarter forecast, citing a deteriorating environment. While valuations for homebuilders continue to look compelling, we remain cautious on the industry as earnings are subject to further downward revisions amid challenging conditions.

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

08:37 am Freescale Semiconductor (FSL)

30.75: Shares in Freescale Semiconductor are soaring in the pre-market on rumors that the semiconductor company may be sold for more than $16 bln in the largest buyout in the technology industry. Citing people familiar with the matter, The New York Times is reporting this morning that a group of investors, including Texas Pacific Group, Blackstone Group LP and Permira Advisers LLP, are close to an agreement to buy the Austin, Texas-based company.

Known for its market leadership position in automotive and communication processors, Freescale has generated solid earnings growth compared to the likes of Intel (INTC), which certainly increases its buyout appeal. The Times reported that Carlyle Group and Bain Capital may also join the buyout group, which is facing competition from Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co and Silver Lake Partners, which submitted a rival bid. Freescale declined to comment.

The interest in the semiconductor industry comes at a time when global chip sales are forecasted to rise 10% this year to $250.5 bln, after rising 6.8% in 2005, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. Growth is expected to accelerate to 11% and 13% over the next two years, recovering from 2001 when sales slumped to $139 bln - the steepest decline in history. Private equity firms have amassed a record level of funds, which is good news for investment bankers, spawning a surge in deals. Just last month, KKR and Silver Lake agreed to buy Royal Philips Electronics NV's semiconductor unit for 3.4 bln euros ($4.32 bln).

Freescale was spun off by Motorola (MOT) in July of 2004 for $13.00 per share after being with the company for more than 50 years. The $12.5 bln company ranks as the third largest chipmaker in the US and the ninth largest in the world with customers including Cisco (CSCO) and Apple (AAPL). Before today, the stock had returned over 22% to date, compared to a 22% decline in rival Intel, as the market continues to reward its efforts in improving margins and diversifying its product mix.

--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com

09:43 am Under Armour: Thomas Weisel upgrades Peer Perform to Outperform. Thomas Weisel upgrades UARM to Outperform from Peer Perform saying the co has demonstrated both the extensibility of the brand into new categories and the operational capacity to execute on growth initiatives. The firm says they are both impressed with the track record to date and compelled by the long list of opportunity markets. The firm sees near-term opportunity for Under Armour to 1) expand the apparel pad in key accounts (men's, women's, and youth), 2) expand brand representation in other departments and specialty stores (golf, tennis, running, soccer, etc.), and 3) grow the product footprint into new categories and markets (cleated and non-cleated footwear, international, etc.). The firm sayw while their current estimates reflect expectations for 25% rev growth into 2007, successful pursuit of near-term opportunities suggests tangible potential for upside.

09:42 am Silgan Holdings: KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald upgrades Buy to Aggressive Buy. Target $47. Keybanc upgrades SLGN to Aggressive Buy from Buy with a $47 tgt based on several developing catalysts: 1) improved outlook for tomato crops; 2) an inflection point in the Plastics segment that is poised for growth; 3) returns from high return growth and cost reduction projects that should begin to meaningfully contribute going forward; and 4) contribution from recently acquired White Cap assets.

09:42 am Citrix Systems: RBC Capital Mkts upgrades Outperform to Top Pick. Target $40. RBC upgrades CTXS to Top Pick from Outperform and sets a $40 tgt saying over the next few months, Citrix should have multiple catalysts, including the Q3 conference call, customer conference, and annual partner conference. The firm says the Q3 conference call should be a positive catalyst as the co is likely to offer a slight revenue improvement over street estimates with better operating margin performance than was experienced in Q2. The firm says they believe as CTXS progresses into 2007 the street estimates will likely move toward a business model which has revs closer to $1.35 bln and $1.75 in EPS. In addition, they say the co is less likely to do any large acquisition in 2007 as they are focused on growing and improving profitability for its existing business.

09:40 am Frontier Oil: Friedman Billings reiterates Outperform. Target $38 to $42. Friedman Billings upgrades FTO to $42 from $38 saying the co is holding an analyst meeting on Wednesday, during which the firm expects the co to provide more details on its capital projects, which include coker and crude unit expansions. They say this should significantly increase its earnings power. Additionally, given the strong cash flows, the co could announce additional projects and/or an increase the share repurchase program.

09:39 am Airspan Networks: Morgan Joseph initiates Buy. Target $6. Morgan Joseph initiates AIRN with a Buy and a $6 tgt saying emergence of mobile WiMAX should significantly increase the addressable market for Airspan. The firm says mobile WiMAX is a much larger and potentially more competitive market opportunity, which could reach $20.0 bln.

09:38 am Riverbed Technology: WR Hambrecht initiates Buy. Target $11. WR Hambrecht initiates RVBD with a Buy and an $11 tgt saying Riverbed mgmt is currently conducting a roadshow in preparation for the co's initial public offering, which they believe will take place later this month. The firm views Riverbed as the innovation and thought leader in W.D.S-a subset of the application delivery infrastructure market geared specifically towards addressing Wide-Area Network performance. The firm believes that Riverbed has defined the market for W.D.S and should continue maintaining its market and technology leadership position, post explosive revenue growth far outpacing its closest competitors, and grow its share of the market.

09:38 am Scientific Games: Banc of America Sec downgrades Buy to Neutral. BofA downgrades SGMS to Neutral from Buy and cuts their tgt to $31 from $36 based on their visit to Germany, they believe growth expectations there could be difficult to achieve. Instant ticket sales from the two co-op contracts have started off much slower than the firm realized due to legislative issues that hamper Sci-Games' ability to fully distribute and advertise its scratch-off game cards. The firm says Global growth of instant tickets remains a compelling story, but the firm would like to see more visibility to the Germany revenue ramp, more achievable consensus, or a more attractive valuation before considering getting back on board.

09:37 am Redback Networks: Miller Johnson downgrades Outperform to Market Perform. Target $19. Miller Johnson downgrades RBAK to Market Perform from Outperform with a $19 tgt saying their checks show that it is very unlikely that Redback will win the Verizon (VZ) Services Gateway R.F.P. While a contract has not yet been signed, their sources within Verizon have indicated that Juniper (JNPR) is the likely winner of the RFP. Both Cisco (CSCO) and Redback are trying to gain a foothold as second sources. The firm says contacts suggest that even if Redback wins the second source, it would be for only 10% of the total business, which amounts to around $6 mln/year.

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