Benj...
The Undertaker is an apt description for AG -- I just hope he is not going to preside over the funeral for the economy but before all is said and done, I suspect that will be the case.
As for seeing some signs of improvement, yes, there are some but not many. Keep in mind that current comparisons are being made against a very slow economy last year yet in many cases the numbers are down, not up, except for the effects of "pro-forma" fictions after all the bad stuff is taken out and any remaining gains are often from cost cutting. In the tech sector, very few (if any) companies are claiming to see hard evidence of any recovery on the horizon, and many are lowering guidance for next quarter and the year even though the second half is normally the seasonally strongest part of the year.
I believe we may well get a bounce here as companies build low inventories out for back to school and the Christmas selling season, but I suspect it will be quite disappointing, especially as far as end user sales to the consumer are concerned. I continue to look for slowing consumer spending and an end to the housing/re-fi boom, and that will take us back into recession relatively soon. There is no pricing ability for companies because of the over capacity in the system and that will put a cap on profits, even with cost cuts.
While I see a few pockets of strength in the economy, they are few and far between, and to a large extent they are misleading. I do not expect that to change, and if the bonds continue to fall, it will take the markets with them and the combined weight of both would certainly take the economy into a downturn.
I am not optimistic. With state and local taxes rising sharply, unemployment growing, and oil remaining high, I see nothing to be optimistic about.
mlsoft
