Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Rasilez data (Speedel, NVS)

Posting a long PR without any annotations is not especially helpful to readers of this board. I think it’s fair to say that these results for Speedel and NVS are at best mixed and perhaps tilting slightly toward bearish. To wit:

1. (Good) There was evidence of 24-hour BP control.

2. (Good) There was no “rebound” effect after discontinuing Rasilez.

3. (Bad) Adding to a diuretic did not materially improve results.

4. (Bad) Rasilez is apparently not synergistic with Norvasc (the leading calcium-channel blocker) and the clinical benefit may not even be additive.

5. (Bad) Rasilez is apparently not synergistic with Diovan (the leading angiotensin-receptor blocker or “ARB”) and the benefit may not even be additive.

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NVS has made a big deal about combining Rasilez with other classes of BP agents, most notably Diovan, which is by far NVS’ largest-selling drug. Rasilez could still be a big-selling drug as a standalone medication, without the above kinds of combo pills, Rasilez will be hard-pressed to become the kind of mega-blockbuster that NVS—and investors in Speedel—had hoped for.