*** ALL THINGS MONEY >>>> ATM ***

[EZ2]

Here's a Trump trade that still has room to run
MARKETWATCH 9:29 AM ET 3/30/2017
Critical information for the U.S. trading day

The Trump rally is over -- run for the hills!

No, wait -- it's getting its groove back.

So which is it? Surely, a look at sectors will reveal all, clearing the air after this up-and-down month.

Nope.

"Normally, certain sectors lead in strong markets, and different ones lead in weaker markets," notes Michael Kahn (http://www.barrons.com/articles/what-the-leading-sectors-tell-us-about-this-market-1490819716), Barron's resident technician.

"Right now, there's little rhyme or reason to the leaders and laggards -- and that keeps the level of uncertainty relatively high for stocks," he says.

Rather than join in the endless debate between the bulls and bears, you could just look for a Trump trade that still has room to run, even as others stumble (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-reflation-trade-since-trumps-election- might-be-going-in-the-other-direction-2017-03-29). The Macro Man blog's Abee Crombie may have delivered exactly that for our call of the day.

"If you want to play the global reflation theme, you really should be looking at Asia ex Japan ," the financial blogger says (http://macro-man.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/around-word.html).

"Earnings estimates have been on the rise in 2017. And don't look now, but it's been positive almost every day this year."

Sure, some pundits say the reflation trade might not have that much to do with our new president (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-strength-has-little-to-do-with-trump-2017-03-29), while others say it's at least "Trump inspired." (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trump-inspired-reflation-trade-just-suffered-a-major- setback-2017-03-28)

Regardless, Abee Crombie's pick for betting on reflation is sporting a nice year-to-date gain.

The big U.S.-listed ETF (AAXJ) that tracks MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index is up 16% in 2017, as of yesterday's close. Talk about power swinging over to the Pacific (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-ways-article-50-will- change-britain-and-europe-2017-03-29).

And the iShares Asia ex Japan ETF stands well below its all-time high, unlike the main U.S. stock indexes. That potentially makes it less scary for investors to plunk new money in it. (The ETF has $2.9 billion in investor cash at the moment, according to ETF.com data (http://www.etf.com/AAXJ)).

The fund's biggest holding is Samsung (005930.SE) , which has weathered all sorts of drama remarkably well (https:// espresso.economist.com/256bf8e6923a52fda8ddf7dc050a1148).

Key market gauges

Futures for the S&P 500 , Dow and Nasdaq-100 are flat to slightly lower this morning. That's after the S&P and Nasdaq Composite both closed modestly higher yesterday (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-set-to-struggle-for- direction-but-vertex-soars-17-2017-03-29), while the Dow lost ground. The S&P is down 0.1% in March, as of yesterday's close, and up 5.5% in the first quarter. It's 1.5% below its March 1 record close.

Across the Pacific, the Shanghai benchmark suffered its biggest intraday drop this year, as one analyst said Asian markets are "confused (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/confused-asian-markets-sag-though-energy-stocks-post-gains-2017- 03-29)."

See the Market Snapshot column (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-sag-with-nasdaq-set-to-lose-its- grip-on-string-of-gains-2017-03-30) for the latest action.

The chart

The S&P 500 has gained 2% on average in April over the past 20 years, notes LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick.

"Whether it's because of tax returns being used to buy equities, last-minute retirement fund contributions, or simply happier moods as the days get warmer, April tends to be one of the strongest months historically. In fact, over the past 20 years, no other month has had a higher average return," he writes (https://lplresearch.com/2017/03/29/will-we-see- april-showers-this-year/).

But if you look back to 1928 or to 1950, April is only the third-strongest month, Detrick adds.

The stat

$528 billion -- That is the record amount that investors borrowed against their brokerage accounts in February, according to a Wall Street Journal story citing NYSE data released yesterday.

What to make of this record level of margin debt? Margin debt has a history of peaking right before financial collapses, but one strategist says "usage of margin seems unexceptional (https://www.wsj.com/articles/margin-debt-hit- all-time-high-in-february-1490825475)" so far.

Also read:Why investors are paying attention to the Baltic Dry Index again (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- surging-measure-of-global-economic-health-is-drawing-renewed-attention-2017-03-29)

The buzz

Lululemon (LULU) is getting stretched way lower after its disappointing earnings late yesterday (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/shares-of-lululemon-tank-as-retailer-calls-for-lower-profit-sales-in-q1-2017-03-29). The leggings seller should have been "bolder with the color assortment (http://fortune.com/2017/03/29/lululemon-says-lack- of-bold-colors-to-blame-for-poor-start-to-2017/)," apparently.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is jumping after its unexpected move (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/conocophillips-stock- surges-as-investors-analysts-cheer-unexpected-big-deal-2017-03-30). to sell its stake in an oil sands venture.

Poor Warren Buffett. With Amazon's (AMZN) stock soaring lately (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-stock-surges- to-record-high-as-retail-dominance-drives-investor-interest-2017-03-29), Jeff Bezos has topped the Oracle of Omaha to become the world's second-richest person (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-29/bezos-rises-to-become- world-s-second-richest-with-amazon-surge), according to Bloomberg's calculations.

Dun with the S&P: Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) is getting kicked out of the S&P 500 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ gartner-to-replace-dun-bradstreet-on-sp-500-2017-03-29). Gartner (IT) is taking its place.

Bill Ackman has apologized (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-apologizes-for-4-billion-valeant-mistake- finally-2017-03-30) for his $4 billion Valeant (VRX.T) mistake.

On the politics front, North Carolina has a deal to repeal its "bathroom law," (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ north-carolina-lawmakers-agree-to-repeal-bathroom-law-2017-03-29) Ivanka Trump has become an official government worker (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ivanka-trump-takes-official-unpaid-position-in-white-house-2017-03-29) after all, and a federal judge in Hawaii has indefinitely extended an order (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hawaii-court-extends- ruling-against-trumps-travel-ban-2017-03-29) blocking President Trump's revised travel ban. In addition, the president will meet with China's Xi Jinping in a week (chinese).

In Brexit news, EU officials are warning U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May not to blackmail them over security (https:// www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation) and Lloyd's of London is embracing Brussels (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lloyds-of-london-to-move-its-eu-base-to-brussels-in- brexit-shift-2017-03-30).

Read:Here's what happens now that the U.K. has triggered Article 50 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-heres- what-happens-now-that-the-uk-has-triggered-article-50-2017-03-29)

The quote

"The court will not crawl into a corner, pull the shutters closed, and pretend it has not seen what it has." -- Derrick Watson, the federal judge in Hawaii, in his decision (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hawaii-judge-says-court- wont-crawl-into-a-corner-over-trump-travel-ban-standoff-2017-03-30) last night. The ruling granted the Aloha State's request for a longer-term halt of the Trump travel ban.

The economy

A fresh estimate for U.S. fourth-quarter GDP (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fourth-quarter-gdp-raised-to-21- corporate-profits-rise-again-2017-03-30) came in above expectations before the opening bell, but weekly jobless claims also were higher than forecasts.

Check out:

And there are Federal Reserve speakers on tap for today's session: Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, Cleveland'sLoretta Mester and San Francisco'sJohn Williams.

Random reads

Great, there's a shark party going on (http://pilotonline.com/news/local/environment/there-s-a-shark-party-in-the- atlantic-ocean-according/article_9457d7ad-474f-5b02-8b16-ab4fd40b8e21.html) in the Atlantic.

Pedestrian deaths are spiking (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TRAFFIC_FATALITIES_PEDESTRIANS) as more people are distracted by their phones.

"American Psycho" author: Don't have a Trump-driven mental collapse (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-29/ american-psycho-author-blasts-hollywood-snowflakes-childish-meltdowns-over-trump).

"When they cut it open, Akbar was inside the snake (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39427458).";

How George W. Bush apparently described (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/03/what-george-w-bush-really- thought-of-trumps-inauguration.html) Trump's inaugural address.

All that nastiness online? It may get worse (http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/03/29/the-future-of-free-speech-trolls- anonymity-and-fake-news-online/).

The NTSB is investigating (http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ntsb-begin-probe-texas-bus-truck-crash-killed-46457842) a Texas bus-truck crash that killed 13.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, butto get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Or Follow MarketWatch onTwitter (https://twitter.com/marketwatch)orFacebook (https://www.facebook.com/marketwatch).

Andto get the Friday email highlighting 10 of the best MarketWatch articles of the week.

-Victor Reklaitis; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-30-170929ET
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.