CJ, been shorting housing stocks for months. CTX has been a fav of mine recently. I'm short right now in fact. I think the housing market has been a goldmine recently on the short side for months now. I am expecting a possible small bounce, but this will give a better entry for positions I've closed recently.
If the housing market will crash it won't take 10 years, imo. ARMs and financial debt-to-income ratios will accelerate any bias up or down. If its going to happen it will happen sooner than later, but many people don't "trade" homes. They simply live in one so they won't be affected.
The housing market is like margin. Buying a rental or second property (vacation home) is like buying on margin hoping you can get out higher. The fallacy is that RE goes up every year. Not true. ARMs and debt will kick this thing off sooner than later. Homebuilders are running from acquisitions faster than a fly gets on sh_t.
The economy is horrible. We have serious problems unaddressed.
1) lack of skilled workers - everyone wants to be a rock star
2) entertainment is #1 - think Roman empire and their downfall
3) lack of manufacturing - the big sucking sound to Mex and China
4) historic debt-to-income ratios
5) a minimal and somewhat poor middle class
6) overworked society
7) poor education of our youth
8) no room in the financing realm to bolster buying - everyone has already bought
9) etc
it has taken less than 20 years of American history to go from an asset based economy to a debt based economy. That is less than one generation, folks. Same with Canada. National debt-to-income has gone negative in October of last year for the first time in the country's history. It isn't just the good ol USA. Keep watching your "Trading spaces" and "Rides" and thinking you need dub2s for your 67 fairlane and flat screens in every room. I'll be retired while you're all out working at 95 years old!
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