The Black Box

[Chris McConnel]

That post does not show it, but he's actually bearish, and feels we will have a selloff, due to seasonality.

Here's his end of day post:

A Standoff
Rev Shark
8/04/03 04:18 PM EDT

As I've pointed out numerous times lately, the dominant theme of this market for quite a while now has been the inability of either side to press its advantage when it has one. The bulls are handed good economic reports and earnings news and can't break us out to the upside. The bears are delivered a pretty technical breach and can't generate any downside momentum.

It looked like the bears were finally going to be able to capitalize on a breach of the key 975 level of the S&P 500, but the buyers stepped up and moved the index smartly back up to close us over 982. Despite the solid recovery and the green indices, there was some internal weakness. Breadth was poor, with 1,400 gainers to about 3,900 decliners. The new-high list continues to shrink. The NYSE actually had more 12-month lows than highs, by a score of 126 to 73. The Nasdaq had 118 new highs and 16 new lows, which is quite a slip from where it was. Volume was once again rather mediocre.

So we continue to be stuck, and the inept bulls battle the impotent bears. The choppiness of this action is making even intraday trading very difficult, and that is likely to drive more traders to the sidelines and make things even more difficult.

Stay patient and wait for your pitch. It is easy to feel frustrated by this market, and the worst thing you can do is press.

Have a good evening. I'll see you tomorrow.