Re: I understand, but what is scary is that AMD got this far this fast. AND that their WILD PUMPING USED CAR SALESMAN PREDICTIONS so far have proved to be uh.....correct.
I don't know why it's scary, or hard at all to believe. They gained most of this share in Q4 2005 when Intel had Prescott and a small number of Smithfield skus to combat AMD's very strong lineup of Athlon 64 and Athlon X2 processors. They also gained in Q1 due to competitive pricing. Once Intel lowered prices in Q2, their momentum shut down, and in spite of a longer quarter (extra week), Intel throttling back on CPU production, and one of their strongest lineups in history, they only gained 1 percentage point.
If you look at them today:
- They have completely underestimated the Core micro-architecture
- AM2 CPUs are a sideways improvement that requires a new socket investment and more expensive memory to retain performance
- Their socket-F launch was late, complete paper, and barely outperforms their previous generation
- Turion X2 is slower and higher power than Yonah, let alone Merom
- They will be 3 quarters later than Intel in delivering quad core
- They just had to collapse pricing by up to 60% across their lineup to remain competitive
- They have fallen way behind in all the benchmarks across all the market segments: server, desktop, and mobile
- Intel's launches have been flawless, and volumes are ramping both of Conroe and Woodcrest, and I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of Merom very soon.
Taking all this into account, would you rather be invested in AMD or Intel right now? Do you think their "WILD PUMPING USED CAR SALESMAN" will seem very credible in another quarter or two? Are you not getting the feeling that all the bravado is nothing more than smoke and mirrors?
Just wait until they announce earnings. I expect them to miss the target all these foolish analysts are predicting.
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