Sunday, January 29, 2017 10:44:25 AM
Modest rebuttal
I won't rehash my views on the capital raises. I thought they were poorly executed, but I understand the necessity. In that regard,I disagree with your recent posts. I also disagree with your share math, which I believe is off. That said, the CEO needs to stick to his statements regarding the company having sufficient capital for the foreseeable future. If he does, and the business improves as I expect, this will be a multi bagger (up 5-10x). Let's not forget, prior to all the positive announcements including Aetna, the company was growing revenues 30-50% y/y. It does take cash to maintain that growth and now they should have that. If they sign a distribution deal in Europe, I would expect them to have to raise more capital. That said, it should be at a materially higher valuation.
With institutions on board now, I believe the company will be more careful on how it raises capital. Moreover, the company needs to generate a return for those shareholders to ensure future access to the capital markets.
I think the downside from here is very small. The upside is $10-$15 under reasonable assumptions and more with further insurance coverage in the US, more tests and geographic expansion.
The share count, including warrants, is still less than 5mm. If you include the cash from warrant exercise, the company will have almost $2.50 per share in cash. Cash burn should be fairly low too at this point given the current revenue run rate.
I sympathize with your frustration, but I think the risk reward is skewed strongly in favor of longs.
I won't rehash my views on the capital raises. I thought they were poorly executed, but I understand the necessity. In that regard,I disagree with your recent posts. I also disagree with your share math, which I believe is off. That said, the CEO needs to stick to his statements regarding the company having sufficient capital for the foreseeable future. If he does, and the business improves as I expect, this will be a multi bagger (up 5-10x). Let's not forget, prior to all the positive announcements including Aetna, the company was growing revenues 30-50% y/y. It does take cash to maintain that growth and now they should have that. If they sign a distribution deal in Europe, I would expect them to have to raise more capital. That said, it should be at a materially higher valuation.
With institutions on board now, I believe the company will be more careful on how it raises capital. Moreover, the company needs to generate a return for those shareholders to ensure future access to the capital markets.
I think the downside from here is very small. The upside is $10-$15 under reasonable assumptions and more with further insurance coverage in the US, more tests and geographic expansion.
The share count, including warrants, is still less than 5mm. If you include the cash from warrant exercise, the company will have almost $2.50 per share in cash. Cash burn should be fairly low too at this point given the current revenue run rate.
I sympathize with your frustration, but I think the risk reward is skewed strongly in favor of longs.
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