Friday, January 27, 2017 6:27:45 PM
Natural Gas Daily - Outlook In February Is Trending Colder
Summary
Outlook in February is trending colder with possible polar vortex in the 11-15 day outlook.
Consensus still has -150 Bcf draws for February.
We sold out of Yangarra Resources today.
The latest Euro model update continues to be slightly warm biased, but increasingly shows higher HDDs.
Here's the latest comparison of the two in the 11-15 day outlook.
This is GFS.
Source: Michael Ventrice
As we have said before, traders will be more biased toward the ECMWF Ensemble as it's considered a better model, but traders can't ignore the 11-15 day outlook from the GFS any longer. The polar vortex that's expected to sweep across Western Canada and into the Northern States in the US will see HDDs materially increase and result in a hefty storage draw for the 2/10 week. As of right now, consensus is basing HDDs off of the ECMWF, so if the Euro changes in anyway and confirms the GFS model, then you can expect a rally in gas prices.
cc
Summary
Outlook in February is trending colder with possible polar vortex in the 11-15 day outlook.
Consensus still has -150 Bcf draws for February.
We sold out of Yangarra Resources today.
The latest Euro model update continues to be slightly warm biased, but increasingly shows higher HDDs.
Here's the latest comparison of the two in the 11-15 day outlook.
This is GFS.
Source: Michael Ventrice
As we have said before, traders will be more biased toward the ECMWF Ensemble as it's considered a better model, but traders can't ignore the 11-15 day outlook from the GFS any longer. The polar vortex that's expected to sweep across Western Canada and into the Northern States in the US will see HDDs materially increase and result in a hefty storage draw for the 2/10 week. As of right now, consensus is basing HDDs off of the ECMWF, so if the Euro changes in anyway and confirms the GFS model, then you can expect a rally in gas prices.
cc
which ever way the HERD goes....GO the other way
