Value Microcaps Pick Six Lotto 03

[lentinman]

TEAM TIE BREAKERS:

As you know the final week will pit the two "best" teams. Since there could, theoretically, be as many as six teams tied going into the final week, picking the two finalists for the one week playoff will not be easy. Nevertheless, they put a man on the moon (according to 99.9% of us) 40 years ago, I think I can figure out the tiebreakers.... and I have - although it took me two times.

The #1 tie breaker is head to head and the #2 tie breaker is total return. That will settle it.

1) TEAM 7 ELIMINATED: Their best case scenario is a tie-breaker at 10-4. No matter what, there will be two teams with better tie-breakers as T7 will end 0-1.

2) TEAM 1 & TEAM 8 WIN: Both are in the final.

3) TEAM 1 & TEAM 4 WIN & TEAM 8 LOSES: T1 and T4 are in the final. T4 makes the final based on a 2-0 head to head.

4) TEAM 8 & TEAM 4 WIN & TEAM 1 LOSES: T8 and T4 are in the final. Again T4 makes the final based on a 2-0 head to head.

5) TEAM 1 & TEAM 8 LOSE & TEAM 4 WINS: T4 is in the finals against T2 - as T4 would be 2-0 head to head and T2 would be 1-0 head to head.

6) TEAM 1 & TEAM 8 & TEAM 4 ALL LOSE: T2 is in the finals against T1 unless T5 wins and then it is T2 versus the best return between T1 (+8.60%) and T5 (+.11%).

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Another way to look at this is (assuming all games at 50% odds of a win):

TEAM 1 GETS IN VIA: Win -- OR loss IF T8 AND T4 both lose AND T1 has a better return than T5. (74% chance of finals)

TEAM 8 GETS IN VIA: Win. (50% chance of finals)

TEAM 4 GETS IN VIA: Win AND either T1 OR T8 lose. (37.5% chance of finals)

TEAM 2 GETS IN VIA: Win AND either T1 OR T4 lose. (37.5% chance of finals)

TEAM 5 GETS IN VIA: Win AND T1, T8 and T4 all lose AND T5 (+.11%) has a better return than T1 (+8.60%). Nearly impossible. (1% chance of finals)

Len