NatGaz demand drops because.....he has some compelling points
1....Sabine Pass shut down for Train 1 & 2 out of commission till Nov. possibly Dec of 2017 2....MILD Winter for next 3 months....possibly into Jan .or Feb of 2017 3....price of natGaz goes up drives conversion over to coal 4....NatGaz need drops 2% for 2017 5....No more covering of short interest driving NatGaz prices up 6....IF what he says is true we could be like the 1996 chart....could get very interesting
7....Oil drillers are adding rigs at the fastest pace since before the oil crash The oil-rig count has climbed in 13 of the last 14 weeks, the longest streak since early 2014, before the oil crash. Analysts have cited the recent gain in the oil-rig count as one sign that the market may remain oversupplied for a while longer. In a note last week Friday, Morgan Stanley's Head of Energy Commodity Research , Adam Longson wrote http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-september-16-2016-9
8....NOAA, AccuWeather and WeatherNetwork forecasts MILD weather till Jan or Feb of 2017 9....SAbine Pass shut down till Nov or Dec of 2016 10....Short count as of 6-2016 was 140 k....now 18 k....appears short covering over.....no reason susstain run because of short covering 11...."As far as Philadelphia and New York City, I would expect that you're not going to see many arctic shots or cold shots to spoil your plans here in the fall," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "The only days that really may be cool are those that are wet. If the season follows our predictions, we're not expecting too many of those coming up," he said. 12....
"I believe that natural gas prices are going to head much lower," predicts Vic Patel, founder of Forex Training Group and a trader with 20-years' experience in the futures markets. "We have had three strong weekly selloffs over the last few weeks, and from the technical chart standpoint, the likely price target is around the $1.75 level."
The reason, Patel says, is a "simple" supply and demand imbalance. "The stockpiles are increasing and there is not enough demand to meet the excess," he says. "In fact, the supply is approaching record levels. We had a very warm winter, and if we continue to see higher temperatures this coming winter, then this trend will continue and drive natural gas prices below $1.75 level by year end." 13....Canadian oil rig count increased by 6 last week 14....Duc rig count largest ever been...5,065 15.... Heavy historical resistance for NatGaz was around 3.10 and possibly put us into a 1996 chart pattern....see below chart
shall see how all this tuns out....they'r not right all the time....but....a lot adding up to make his points reasonably convincing
AI
