MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[augieboo]

YOU MAKE THE CALL!

Take a look at my latest Augieboodicator charts and see if you can make a correct call based on what they tell you.

Please post your call PUBLICLY, and let us know what time frame you are talking about.

What have you got to lose? If you're wrong, just blame my indicators! {ng}


AUGIEBOODICATOR

This is a single indicator which takes into account all
three of the major market "internals," i.e., Issues
Advancing & Declining, Volume Advancing & Declining, as
well as New Highs & New Lows.

Long-Term Augieboodicator:


Medium-Term Augieboodicator:


Short-Term Augieboodicator:



AugiePPO & AugieStochastic:

AugiePPO uses moving averages constructed from an average of high, low, and closing price. AugieStochastic is constructed in the normal manner, but the settings are my own blend.




The next indicator is, I think, my own creation. I call it "AugieThing" for lack of anything better springing to mind. AugieThing combines Price and Volume into a single EMA-type indicator, the primary purpose of which is to look out for trend changes via divergences.






"Elder-ray" (which consists of two parts -- Bull & Bear Power) and "Force Index" are indicators I copied from Alexander Elder's books. Here are the formulas:

Bull Power = High - EMA (13)
Bear Power = Low - EMA (13)

Elder-ray gives buy signals in uptrends when Bear Power turns negative and then ticks up.

Elder-ray gives shorting signals in downtrends when Bull Power turns positive and then ticks down.




Force Index = (Close Today - Close Yesterday) * Volume Today

When the trend ... is up and ... Force Index declines below zero, it gives a buy signal. When the trend is down and ... Force Index rallies above zero, it gives a sell signal.

Force Index is also used to show exhaustion moves and impending reversals.

-- Buying Panic = a spike up of 8 or more times normal height for past two months;

-- Selling Panic = a spike down of 4 or more times deeper than for the last two months.

Reversals: Watch for divergences between Force Index and Price.






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Components of my Indicators
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My research has shown that new highs and new lows are one of the very best trend following indicators out there, so I look at them in three different ways, and incorporate them into my Augieboodicators.

[1] Net New Highs (NNH) = new highs - new lows

[2] % New Highs (%NH) = New Highs / (Advancing Issues + Declining Issues)

[3] Net % New Highs (N%NH) = (New Highs - New Lows) / (Advancing Issues + Declining Issues)










The other two components of the Augieboodicators are summation indices based on issues and volume (and of three different durations). Here are long and short term charts of the raw issues and volume summation indices.