ajtj99's Market Pulse

[chainik]

<not the sort of internals which historically correlate with sustained moves higher, distribution>

On the other hand, some of sentiment indicators (ISEE, OEX P/C open interest, AAII bulls/bears, Rydex technology assets) are at the levels similar to 2002-2003 bottom, which is inconsistent with a sustained move lower :)

COT improved significantly, in particular there was very big shift in NDX minis (in comparison with last week, commercials are longer by 70 K contracts, which is unusually large move). I subscribe to the idea that minis predict short-term market direction (on a scale of a week) better than large contracts. If this is true, then there is likely to be a short-term rally.

Everybody may have an opinion on what the Fed will do, but the fact is that the Fed will follow Fed funds futures. Currently, the probability of a pause is about 85%.

I am betting on a rally after the Fed (maybe after a series of false moves up and down). Just to distribute better (g).