Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: RVNC RT002 market opportunity

what's your odds of RT002 success especially comp to Botox?

RT002 has at least a 90% chance of making it to market, IMO; the only thing that could derail it is a safety problem that hasn't yet showed up.

If RT002 does make it to market, the clinical data to date says that it will be at least as good as Botox in efficacy and duration of action, and perhaps a little better on duration. With a large company (presumably) handling commercialization and marketing, RT002 ought to be able to capture a >=20% market share within a couple of years of launching in any given geography.

Botulinum toxin is a ~$3B worldwide market, and it is growing at a nice clip thanks to increasing global affluence. One of the first things people from emerging middle classes do with disposable income is spend it on looking good.

There are no generics or interchangeable biosimilars in this market, and there never will be.

Caution: Do not rely on Dysport or Xeomin as a comparator for what RT002 is cabable of achieving commercially; the former is an inferior product scientifically, and the later is marketed by a small private company (Merz) who doesn't have what it takes to compete effectively.