SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[gdl]

I am hoping we do not break out today. It makes my assumptions of a breakout tomorrow more likely. A strange argument but that's how I see it. if you add up all the variables what has changes since February's lows? I say quite a lot and mostly positive. Do you ignore the changes we are seeing with the consumer? Are you a purely technical guy and if so what reading to you see that signals such a drop? Have we had sideways consolidation periods in the past that launched the next leg up? Do you think the street is NOW more concerned with inflation or rate hikes after the numerous announcements proclaiming one in June or July? I am an analytical thinker. I have expected this surge for many months based on consumer strength. Everyone denied my analysis then but seems to forget that it is already showing in real time.

My MACRO view is intact. If yours was this good would you abandon it just when you see a breakout? I must obey my analysis. if my timing is off so be it. You don't however get many opportunities to double down.

Having said all that I do not like the Q's steady rise to new highs in this rally leg. looks like a blow off situation and not a small retrace for further gains. I would love to see a late day drop.