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Where to hide as big bank warns of 15% swoon for stocks

MARKETWATCH 7:26 AM ET 06/01/16

Critical information ahead of the U.S. market's open

Yesterday didn't do much in the way of confidence building for investors, who continue to bang on the door of 2,100 for the S&P 500, but to no avail.

"U.S. equities are still unable to break new highs, which we believe could be a sign that another selloff is underway," ADS Securities'sNour Al-Hammoury told clients on Wednesday.

That's just a sampling of the comments out there right now, as June kicks off.

"The global risk rally has come unstuck in the past 24 hours, as investors keep adding to their 'reasons to worry' list," says IG's senior market analyst Chris Beauchamp.

Those fresh additions include an OECD warning that a "yes" for Brexit could rattle negatively around the globe (http:/ /www.marketwatch.com/story/oecd-sees-global-growth-weakeningurges-governments-to-stimulate-economies-2016-06-01). Note the yen is king this morning, lording it over other currencies -- a red flag that investors are a little unnerved.

(https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/737948718125699072)

Not doing much for confidence either is our call of the day, which says the S&P 500 could take a big hit this summer. That doesn't mean there aren't a few opportunities out there -- think beaten-down sectors that could thrive if the Fed pushes the red button. Read on for the full view.

Along those lines, LPL Financial's Burt White advised clients to be ready for a June packed with events that could usher in volatility, but also a potential "dip to buy," depending on how all that swings.

Heads up for ISM data due later. A positive surprise in that reading could turn the negative sentiment for stocks around, if is right.

On with the show.

Key market gauges

Dow and S&P futures are moving further into the red. In Asia, , China stocks (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ china-shares-struggle-after-fresh-data-casts-doubt-on-further-stimulus-2016-06-01) struggled after lackluster manufacturing data.

The dollar (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-falls-as-investors-seek-safety-in-yen-over-brexit-polls-2016-06- 01) and the euro are getting mauled as investors pile into the yen. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed he will delay a sales tax hike until late 2019 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/abe-delays-japanese-sales-tax-hike-until-late-in-2019- 2016-06-01), but what was really driving up the yen were a couple of polls Tuesday showing voter support for a Brexit. Gold isn't doing much.

Oil prices are stacking up losses and are pulling further away from $50 a barrel, with U.S. supply data today and of course, an OPEC meeting (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/key-issues-opec-must-wrestle-with-at-june-meeting-even-as-oil- nears-50-2016-05-25) on Thursday. European stocks (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-sag-with-miners- lower-as-june-trading-gets-underway-2016-06-01) joined U.S. stock futures in the red.

Check out:Oil rally leaves ECB room to 'celebrate' at Thursday's meeting (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-rally- leaves-ecb-room-to-celebrate-at-thursdays-meeting-2016-05-31)

The call

Some of Wall Street's big banks have made no secret about the fact they're not too jazzed about stocks this summer (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-banks-see-a-painful-summer-for-stocks-ahead-2016-05-16). Like Goldman Sachs, which blew the everybody-out-of-the-pool-whistle last month, dropping to neutral on global stocks (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-loses-faith-in-stocks-and-warms-up-to-oil-2016-05-18).

And here's another: the S&P 500 could see a 15% selloff this summer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian told CNBC. Oil-market volatility, global political uncertainty and tighter lending standards will get in the way of stock gains this summer, says Subramanian, who has been preaching caution in recent months (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lousy-stock-sentiment-suggests-theres-more-wall-for-worry-to-climb-2016-05-02).

Chiefly, she argues the market isn't "pricing in a summer rate hike, and the reason is, if you look at the stocks and the sectors in the S&P that are expensive, they're industries that benefit from zero interest rates." The possibility of two hikes this year isn't being priced in either, she noted.

Steer clear of utilities and staples, which have "barely sold off," she says. Instead, pick up cheap tech and health- care stocks, the latter of which have "taken it on the chin" from election risks and being in a crowded section of the market.

Here's the full interview (h/t iBankCoin (http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/05/31/warning-bofamerrill-calls-for- summer-stock-market-crash/)):

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/cIxD15IugAA)

The chart

Over a year ago, most major equity indexes were sitting at new highs, such as the S&P 500, which tapped 2,130.82 on May 21, 2015. On that same day, the MSCI World Index made a new high of 1,810, and is currently off around 7.3% from that level, notes GavekalCapital's Eric Bush (http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=11144).

And since that time, two out of three mid-large cap stocks have declined, as his chart shows below (green indicates the number of gainers, and red the number of losers). The biggest spike on that chart indicates 290 stocks are down roughly 20%.

"Overall, 66% of stocks have declined over the past year, while just 34% have posted unchanged or positive performance," says Bush.

The buzz

Under Armour (UA) shares dropped 4% premarket, after the sportwear maker cut its sales outlook (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/under-armour-cuts-sales-outlook-for-the-year-2016-05-31) for the year late Tuesday, citing the bankruptcy of Sports Authority. Nike (NKE) shares are also down, falling 3.5%

SiriusXM (SIRI) has suspended conservative radio host Glenn Beck (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/siriusxm-suspends- glenn-beck-over-trump-assassination-comments-2016-05-31) over comments he made in a recent interview about assassinating Donald Trump. Beck says he was taken out of context.

Amazon CEO (AMZN) Jeff Bezos made some optimistic comments (http://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-ceo-sides-with-media- in-gawker-case-1464752141) about ramping up deliveries in the U.S. at the Code Conference in California on Tuesday. (See also our quote of the day)

Ron Sargent, CEO of Staples (SPLS) , is stepping down as of June 14. Shira Goodman, Staples's president of North America, will take over as interim CEO. Last month, the FTC crushed the office supply company's plans to merge with Office Depot (ODP).

A couple of earnings to note. Michael Kors (KORS), whose handbags are becoming a rarity at Nordstrom (), is up 10% in premarket trader after its earnings beat a soft outlook (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/michael-kors-shares-surge-10- premarket-as-earnings-beat-outweighs-soft-outlook-2016-06-01). Vera Bradley (VRA) is also coming ahead of the open.

The economy

It's another big data day. The May Markit PMI survey is coming at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. That's followed by ISM manufacturing for May and construction spending for April at 10 a.m. Eastern. Auto sales are also out today, and the Beige book is due at 2 p.m.

The stat

$466,500 -- That's how much the highest paid Fed president, New York Fed's William Dudley, made in 2015.

St. Louis Fed's James Bullard had the lowest annual pay in the group at $339,700, according to the central bank's annual report on Tuesday, as reported by Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-31/fed-honchos- pining-for-wage-gains-got-nice-pay-raises-themselves). In all, Fed pay went up 4% on average last year.

The quote

"Seek revenge and you will dig two graves -- one for yourself." -- That's Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/jeff-bezos-criticizes-thiel-trumps-efforts-to-fight-media-2016-05-31) channeling Confucius (https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Confucius)and criticizing billionaire entrepreneur Peter Thiel's bid (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/jeff-bezos-criticizes-thiel-trumps-efforts-to-fight-media-2016-05-31) to take down Gawker Media on Tuesday at Recode's Code Conference.

Bezos added that public figures such as Donald Trump need to develop "a thick skin," and criticism is "not worth losing any sleep over."

Random reads

State Department warns Americans visiting Europe this summer of possible terror attacks (http://www.marketwatch.com/ story/these-two-countries-hold-a-terror-risk-for-travelers-this-summer-the-us-warns-2016-06-01)

40 dead tiger cubs found in a freezer at Thailand's infamous Tiger Temper (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/ 2016/06/01/tigers-thailand/85229498/) (http://www.wmbfnews.com/story/32104422/doctors-describe-shark-bite-wound-after- california-attack)

(http://qz.com/695101/the-amish-understand-a-crucial-element-of-modern-medicine-that-most-americans-dont/)Beautiful Swiss town full of millionaires paid $300,000 to keep refugees out (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/residents-of-this- swiss-town-are-paying-300k-to-keep-refugees-out-2016-05-31).

@DarthPutinKGB and other parody accounts for the Russian leader have suddenly gone dark (https://www.buzzfeed.com/ hayesbrown/twitter-apparently-had-no-idea-this-parody-account-was-a-par?utm_term=.sykoD0qP9P#.udEX9ZEz7z)

"The stuff of any keeper's nightmare" a former zookeeper talks about Harambe (https://www.facebook.com/ amanda.odonoughue/posts/1203379586363094?hc_location=ufi)

Giant alligator cruising Florida golf course gets "Jurassic Park" treatment

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/omGjzl8mJJU)

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-Barbara Kollmeyer; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]


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