Trend Update
Trend info listed below, BUT, we expect prices to be in a corrective Discount wave between now and the Fed announcement on 27Apr (Wednesday next week)??
The Q’s have BROKEN Trend on the Close on Friday (110.10 was the Trend line), and a follow through down day Monday will trigger a SELL-the BOUNCE signal???
The Q’s trend change triggered on 2/22 and completed day 43 as of Thursday’s close, BUT, the CLOSE-ing price of 108.98 on Friday BROKE the Trend and we expect 4-8 trading days of corrective action before we should expect any bounce of meaning??
The trend line number moved to 110.03 as of Friday’s CLOSE with the FIRST Sell signal coming on 4/11 as the Q’s CLOSE at 108.60 which was below the trend line of 108.91. That said, the Trend had NOT been broken as of yet based on some sophisticated indicators we developed to indicate as such. BUT, the CLOSE 108.98 below Trend line 110.10 on Friday did in fact Trigger a Trend change!!!
The SPY is clinging to its uptrend with a CLOSE at 208.97 and a Trend line number of 207.40 as of Friday’s CLOSE. We got THREE sell Signals in a row on 4/7, 4/8, and 4/11 but NO trend reversal as the SPY climbed back above its Trend line number of 205.04 on 4/12 with a CLOSE of 205.92? Obviously our system was sophisticated enough to recognize NO TREND reversal as of those three sell signals because the SPY went on to post a NEW YTD High of 210.92 on Wednesday 4/20.
In addition, the HUGE drop into the last hour of trading on Wednesday triggered a ST-TOP that got us screaming from the Roof-Top to GET SHORT and we stand by this call into Tuesday as the SPY attempts to violate the key support lines listed below?? Obviously the SPY will trigger a TREND CHANGE if said support lines get violated, let us all play along as da-Boyz follow our lead and complete this ST Cascading Discount Wave of meaning, or NOT, LOL…
Support
208.65, 207.78, 206.84, 206.50, 205.92, 204.32
Expect EVERY Freakin one of deeze puppies to get violated as we careen into the Abyss on our way back to the YTD ZERO line of 204.32??
Couple things to consider as we try to extrapolate what this all means???
1) A trend lasting this long is NOT usuallly associated with a bearish or TOP-ing pattern. In other words, things are out of sync in many regards when one C’s a trend of 42 days but all other indicators are signaling bad things to come in regard to price??
2) It appears da-Boyz are intent to post another tall Green Monthly candle similar to March? March was a 100 point candle and if one takes the Opening price of 203.09 and adds 10.00 (100 points), one can easily expect 213.09 as a reasonable target before this Non-Compulsive Sneaky Manipulative Wave up to takes a breather? If we then get a 50% retrace one can extrapolate a 203 target on a intraday basis but with 203.87 being the Closing price on 12/31/2015 one must consider closing below said level as signaling more down??
In Summary, One has to consider 1 of 2 scenarios when trying to discern this disconnect??
1) Serious manipulation in an attempt to exit stage right by the rulers of the Markets?
2) This three year consolidation between 1800 and 2150 is nothing more then that, consolidation before the multi-year break-out?
I can’t imagine ANYONE has considered scenario two in which the past three years has been THE correction(consolidation) and once complete we move up to play above 2150 for many years?? This would suggest that the BULL RUN ended three years ago (suggesting the BULL Market lasted only 4 years which is well within the mean),and we’re in the process of COMPLETE-ing THE correction!!??
Not even I can wrap me tiny brain around dat possible out-come…
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