Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Re: ABBV going all in

It's hardly an argument, but if we are using gambling terminology, ABBV should be realizing (once again) that regardless how much it invests in proving stellar efficacy across all possible patient types, GILD triplet will still be the preferred regimen because it's a single pill with shorter or same duration and similar efficacy across all patient types where it's studied (and considering sof/vel and harvoni, GILD doesn't really leave much space open to ABBV, maybe renal impaired patients because SOF is in every one of their regimens). Sure, the situation is better than Viekira vs. Harvoni, but it's still not an even playing field - clinically, there is no reason to choose ABBV doublet if GILD triplet and sof/vel and harvoni are also available. So, they will once again need to compete on price/contracting, and we've already seen how that plays out. Except now we have a third player, MRK, who has another inferior triplet that needs to compete on price and who has already signaled what their competitive strategy is going to be with how they priced Zepatier. And all on the background of declining patient demand (at least in the US). Don't know what return ABBV is expecting on their investment, but I think that money would be better spent on some other assets, e.g. their hematology programs (where the competitive situation with GILD is the exact opposite.)