Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[golfho]

In response to your statement below:

Actually, the sims all hinted to the possibility of exactly what happened.

I never saw golfho's "work", but the other 2 had decent numbers showing how the control arm should be progressing. But the result of that left the Bavi arm with very few events, far fewer than what one might rationally expect.

So at that point we knew the control arm was doing exceptionally well. It still could have played out OK (with Bavi besting an outperforming control). But certainly what happened was in play.

Please read or re-read my post #257161
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_person.aspx?membernum=146420

Please read it slowly…Making every attempt to understand my projections. Please Pay particular attention to the following…

“Well I’ll be damned there it is…In black and white…At a projected MOS of 13 the number of events around the end of January is between 72 & 78 events per arm. I bracket the group to include an MOS of 12 to 14…See below:”

“See below” points to a portion of my spreadsheet with the various projected final MOS numbers at time of first look-in.

I then continue with the following:

“So…What’s the bottom line…???

Both arms were trending towards an MOS of about 13 with a range of +/- 1

AND SO WHAT…???

On a personal level I feel good that I created a projection that ultimately reflected reality. And I am disappointed that the reality is, the control group exceeded my (In my view) overly optimistic projection of exceeding its historical highest number by 20% (My upper limit for the control arm…12 months) by ~30%. FWIW that’s a 100% increase over the mean for all of the historical data.”

In case what was stated has not sunk in yet I’ll repeat in bold the important point:

Both arms were trending towards an MOS of about 13 with a range of +/- 1

I continued with:

“And I am disappointed that the reality is, the control group exceeded my (In my view) overly optimistic projection of exceeding its historical highest number by 20% (My upper limit for the control arm…12 months) by ~30%.”

After re-reading this I realize that the above statement could be confusing because of its grammatical structure.

Let me be clearer…

The highest MOS number for ALL Docetaxel clinical trials recorded is 10.4 (I used the Herbst 9.9 rounded up to 10)

In my assumption for the upper limit for Docetaxel MOS I used a 20% increase over the best ever. I did that because; calculating the number of combinations and permutations ranging from 9.0 to 14.0 would produce several hundred results and I chose not to expand my spreadsheet to that extent.

There is NO doubt in my mind that the event numbers at first look-in were pointing to an ultimate MOS number for Docetaxel of ~13 months.

I now state with reasonable certainty that the final MOS numbers for Bavituximab if un-tampered with will fall within the range of 13.0 and 14.0

About not seeing my “work”…

Several times I have offered to provide my projection to anyone that would like to see it. I offered it for the express purpose of peer review. Find errors…I offered it to you specifically. You can still see it if you choose to. Just PM an e-mail address or some other means to get it to you.

Regards
golfho