Just one opinion - but it seems you are loosing the argument - the prior post you reference was not "BS" at the time - and I think three respected posters had mostly agreed with the possibility of such a result in their respective simulations - what you need to keep in mind is that their simulations were assuming that the control arm would perform up to its "best" historical norms {I think they all assumed a 10 month MOS} - and if that had indeed been the case, then the numbers above would have been the only way such a result could be explained - particularly in light of the 9.4 month MOS the recently completed Opdivo trial had demonstrated for Doxe. So NO ONE had any idea that our Control Arm would so DRAMATICALLY OUTPERFORM its historical record.
Also, keep in mind the 9.4 month MOS in the Opdivo trial - If our control arm would have simply performed at this same level {which I would note is still on the high side of its historical average going back over 15 years}, then we would have seen a much earlier first look-in {which could have brought about a halt for efficacy} - but most likely Dr. Garnick would have waited for the second look-in {which likely would have taken place a month or so ago} and then the trial would have been halted and we would be waiting on final approval right now.
Finally, while I of course do not know why - but it deserves repeating - I've been told that Dr. Garnick's mood has only recently improved quite dramatically. I would hope we will find out why sometime soon.
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