CP - at least you now say you're guessing, which is accurate. We don't know what was expected, but based on the passage you site, the phase 2 showed a 4 month improvement. Obviously PPHM didn't expect BAVI to perform better in the phase 3 than it did in the phase 2, but likely estimated it would perform the same. The "margin" you talk about was built into the assumptions to allow the control arm to perform 2 months better than it did in the phase 2. Instead it did even better. To start with MOS numbers from other studies involving the control drug then adding to it plus margin and expected improvement that BAVI would provide is simply BASS-ACKWARDS thinking. What makes you think that BAVI in the phase 3 would outperform the phase 2 results? That is simply insane!