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Support for Afghan mission falls sharply

BRIAN LAGHI
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
POSTED AT 2:49 AM EDT ON 20/07/06

OTTAWA — Opposition to the Canadian presence in Afghanistan is intensifying, as almost half of voters surveyed say they want Prime Minister Stephen Harper to immediately withdraw troops from a conflict that is becoming a potential voting issue.

The results are found in a new national poll conducted after Corporal Anthony Boneca became the 17th Canadian killed in Afghanistan and on a weekend when eight Canadians were killed in an Israeli air strike in Lebanon.

“There's a feeling that it's gotten much worse, ‘so get them out now, it's becoming a quagmire,' “ said pollster Timothy Woolstencroft of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail/CTV News.

“We think that we're peacekeepers, not peacemakers, and in many ways Canadians haven't really come to understand that we have a combat role. As they see evidence of body bags and Canadians getting killed and maimed, their sense of well-being about the purpose of the war is eroded.”

Concern about Afghanistan and the environment both registered high in the poll, although they appear to be the only real vulnerabilities facing Mr. Harper as his government enjoys an 11-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Indeed, Mr. Woolstencroft said Mr. Harper might start considering the possibility of calling an election if he can stickhandle the environment and the war.

The poll found that 41 per cent of those surveyed — including 54 per cent in Quebec — believe Canadian troops should be brought home now, while 34 per cent say Canadians should remain in Afghanistan for a limited period of two years or more. Twenty-one per cent say Canadians should stay for as long as it takes to stabilize the country.

Similarly, 48 per cent said the effort in Afghanistan was going worse than expected. Only 12 per cent said it was better, while 35 per cent said things were about the same. A declining number of Canadians said they support sending the troops. Of those surveyed, 39 per cent backed the idea, down from 55 per cent in March, around the time Mr. Harper visited the country. Fifty-six per cent now oppose the mission, up 15 percentage points from March.

Mr. Woolstencroft said the dropping support for the Afghanistan mission may be tied in with the recent deaths of Canadians in Lebanon.

“Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East — they're very far away and Canadians probably aren't making a lot of distinction,” he said.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was taken July 13-16, days after Cpl. Boneca's death July 9 in Afghanistan and just as the conflagration in Lebanon was set off. The poll is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

The survey also found that 7 per cent of Canadians believe the war on terrorism is the most important issue facing Canada today, tied for third with government leadership, but behind health care and the environment. Only 1 per cent of voters listed it as their major concern in January.

“If you look at a year ago, we had Gomery and health care,” Mr. Woolstencroft said, referring to the inquiry under Mr. Justice John Gomery into the Liberal government's sponsorship program. “Now Gomery's disappeared ... and terrorism has moved in.”

The terrorism issue and the increasing importance of the environment suggest Mr. Harper could be vulnerable in Quebec in an election. The Conservatives' popularity has remained relatively static in the province, as it has in the rest of the country. The major difference in the political landscape comes in the support for the Liberals, which is hovering at 26 per cent, down four percentage points from the Jan. 23 election. The Tories are up one point to 37 per cent, while the New Democrats are stationary at 18 per cent.

More significantly for Mr. Harper, 61 per cent of Canadians surveyed believe that his government is on the right track, while 38 per cent say the Conservatives are performing better than expected and only 12 per cent saying they are doing worse.

“It looks like they might be wise to go for an early election,” before opposition to Afghanistan really starts to gel, Mr. Woolstencroft said.

© Copyright 2006 Bell Globemedia Publishing Inc.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060720.wpoll20/BNStory/National/