Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Ted Cruz Names Friends, but Silence From G.O.P. Brass Deafens
By JONATHAN MARTIN and MATT FLEGENHEIMERMARCH 27, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/us/politics/ted-cruz-names-friends-but-silence-from-gop-brass-deafens.html

Could Cruz even be considering waiting until 2020?

Do dithering donors at all point to a possible GOP outside draftee?

Could Romney change his mind?

Could GOP honchos change convention rules?

Who will have the power at a brokered GOP convention?
March 21, 2016 4:15pm

[...]

Following is a comprehensive list of the possibilities. I’ll be the first to admit that I have no idea what the probabilities are that each will occur.

1. Trump wins a majority of delegates and goes on to win on a first ballot. Once he amasses the necessary delegates, Trump might pivot to the general and turn into a thoughtful, serious person who stops insulting people and stops making ridiculous statements. He cleans up his act just enough to hand him a tepid endorsement from the rest of the party. The last debate was noteworthy for the way in which Trump seemed to have reined himself in, refraining from the gratuitous insults that were his previous stock in trade. All-in-all he seemed to be trying to be more presidential and less controversial. However, after the debate, he quickly reverted to form by telling people that there would be “riots in the street” if he didn’t get the nomination. So the “acting-like-a-president” gambit doesn’t seem like something he can sustain.

2. Trump wins a majority of delegates and goes on to win on a first ballot…but the congressional wing of the party goes it alone. In this scenario, Trump gets a majority of delegates and wins the nomination, but the rest of the Republican Party decides to just give up on the presidency this time around. Led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, the congressional leadership separates itself from Trump and gives a back-handed endorsement to Hillary Clinton by campaigning on the need to have a solid Republican Congress in order to stop what they consider President Hillary Clinton’s worst ideas.

3. Trump wins enough delegates to win on a first ballot but he does not have enough friends at the grass roots level of the Republican Party to elect delegates who are loyal to him. Already conservatives like Roger Stone are warning Trump to beware of “Trojan horse delegates.” The draft rules for the Republican National Convention stipulate that delegates have to vote for the person who won their state, or at least cast their votes proportionally. But these rules can be changed by a vote of the convention rules committee which is different from the Republican National Committee’s rules committee. If the convention rules committee changes the rules and all convention delegates vote to agree with them, they could open the door to defections from Trump. Then, Trump fails to get a majority on the first ballot; Cruz and Kasich make a deal and Cruz most likely wins the presidential nomination on the second ballot, with Kasich becoming the vice presidential nominee.

4. The outside compromise. This is a variation of option #3 except that the convention does not turn to Cruz or Kasich and instead seeks an outside compromise candidate like Speaker Paul Ryan to become their standard bearer.

5. Trump goes into the convention with a plurality but not a majority of delegates. This guarantees a second ballot even without his opponents having to win votes on rule changes. In this scenario, there is no test vote to determine which other candidate might have the strength to put together a majority so expect either a long period of negotiations between the first and second ballot or more than two ballots. If none of the candidates who have delegates in the hall can win on a second ballot, the convention could well turn to an outside candidate. .. links and more .. http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2016/03/21-gop-governors-have-the-power-at-a-brokered-convention-kamarck