Simple's Green Room

[pennies2007]

That's some interesting selection on MA's, Simple. Longer term MA's like those may very well help dictate trend shift as opposed to some of the faster MA's I've seen used before.

I have used the 5 minute chart in the past successfully to detect larger trend shifts and I've seen them followed for a very long time using the lower time frames as guides.

I've shifted primarily to larger time frames and shifted my "slack" expectations accordingly a long time ago so I can build positions ahead of major trend shifts without getting in trouble on the account. I think what's happened with some folks is that they're getting in far too deep and/or adding too close together on the larger time frames expecting shifts that may not come for extended periods of time.

Consolidation is definitely a key component in any potential shift in trend and should be watched closely since, as you say, consolidation can simply be a pause in trend before continuation or a genuine pause before a shift in trend. The market seems to delight in taking a good long time to shift trends as they always have.

Excellent post Simple and some great suggestions and guidelines to use in determining price action and to help whittle down drawdown on entries.