Rod, I can't argue with the theory. It all makes sense. But you don't know if it will truly work or how well until it is trialed.
When the stage 1 202 data came out a year ago, I had hoped it would be strengthened with explanations of the short comings I observed (previously discussed). I couldn't get the company to call me back with answers. And ASCO came and went and there was no clarification. The OS K-M curved was presented and it was very weak. I have seen all kinds of trials fail in the past with cancer when the MOA seemed like a no-brainer. Even Dr Ko, the UCSF PI on the latest PEG trial, was somewhat cautious in a CME presentation on advances in PanCan Jan 21 in SF sponsored by Celgene. Although he was excited to be doing the PEG trial (as well as other promising PanCan trials) he cautioned that simply depleting the stroma and decreasing tumor pressure wasn't enough to predict improved outcomes. That is basically what was tried in a number of failed hedgehog inhibitor trials in pancan and it turns out the stroma probably acts as an inhibitor to tumor growth.
So, we are back to clinical data - and it isn't good enough for me right now. It might have been had HALO kept me a believer in their ability to fund PEG all the way to market. But their recent financial disclosures and guidance as well at the overall market makes me worried about having to find a partnership or other financing in a era of tightening purse strings.
I'd love to increase investment in HALO again. I'll be watching for news. And if the news moves faster than I can in a good direction, I'll be satisfied with my lesser profits and very happy for you all.
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