Thanks for outlining those possibilities...
Just read the front quote on volatility on Barron's Market Week which I think you and others might find very interesting in terms of how the market could move around in 2016, and appreciate your thoughts:
"Volatility has been the name of the investing game this year, but that doesn't mean stocks are doomed to finish 2016 in the red. UBS strategist Julian Emanuel notes that when the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, traded near 27 last week, that increased the odds of a big move either up or down for the S&P 500 at some point in 2016. In fact, there remains a 27% chance that the S&P 500 could touch 2500 during the year, based on this level of volatility. That might seem unlikely right now, but Emanuel points out that the S&P 500 finished up 24% in 2009 despite dropping 8.6% in January of that year. "Volatility can work both ways," he says.
Hmmmmm, but isn't Emanuel missing the point that back in 2009, the previous year (2008) was a full on bear market and S&P 500 was down over 50% before the final bottom in March 2009?! Today we are just off around 10%. Not saying that SPY can't move up a good amount (as we already saw in Oct after VXX hitting 40?), and could again into Feb/Mar (as you point out), but I think Emanuel is overemphasizing this volatility relationship to the positive side than a more likely result due to current market conditions from 0% Fed rates last 7+ years (large downturn/20% correction). Time will tell, that's for sure!
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
