NanoViricides Inc (NNVC)

[KMBJN]

I didn't forget anything. I linked to an article from a Harvard Journal. Looking at other sources, it looks like the good doctor's numbers are incorrect.

Here's another link showing a lower estimate:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2907955/

around 60,000 per year.

And another link going over the epidemiology of ocular herpes:

http://www.aao.org/clinical-statement/herpes-simplex-virus-keratitis-treatment-guideline

Again supports around 60-80,000 cases per year in the US.

"Globally it is estimated that there are 1,000,000 new cases and 9,000,000 recurrent episodes of ocular HSV each year. It is also estimated that ocular HSV is responsible for visual disability in 1,000,000 people world-wide each year.31, 32 In the United States, patients make an average of four visits to an ophthalmologist for the first episode and six visits for recurring episodes of ocular HSV.18 It is estimated that a doctor’s visit for ocular HSV results in a loss of one full day of work or leisure per visit.33 Based on this data and estimates of incidence in the U.S.,19 an estimated 58 million days of work (444,000 in the U.S.) are lost treating ocular HSV worldwide each year. In addition, there is a significant burden attributed to the disease itself. The mean time from onset of symptoms to resolution of active ocular HSV disease was estimated at 17.6 days for the first episode and 28.4 days for recurrent episodes.18."

Doesn't sound like a small number of cases (9M in the world per year), or that there are effective treatments - each infection takes 2-4 weeks to resolve.

Feel free to play with the numbers and make whatever assumptions you want about possible effectiveness, adoption rates, and pricing.

Your assumption is a low adoption rate and low price, since most would opt for a cheaper, possibly less effective drug.

I think people would pay a premium for a rapidly acting, effective anti-viral, and adoption rates would be high.

Tens of millions of revenue is a reasonable estimate for ocular herpes if it was as effective and rapid acting as in pre-clinical studies, and I heard they think they might be able to distribute it without a partner. Depending on the amount of revenue and the cash burn rate (currently <$10M per year if memory serves correctly), ocular Herpecide could easily make NNVC profitable.