AI
Monday, January 04, 2016 6:59:23 PM
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Monday Update
Posted on January 5, 2016
SHORT TERM: 2016 off to rough start, DOW -276
The market gapped down at the open today,
jumping completely below support at SPX 2034/2044,
and opened at 2012.
It then traded down to SPX 1990
before it had its first notable rally of the day.
A somewhat disturbing way to start the new year.
During the second half of December
the market gyrated between a continuing downtrend
and a potential new uptrend.
The up/down trend inflection point was at SPX 2044,
and the uptrend needed to clear the 2085 pivot.
Today’s action finally cleared the pattern:
a continuing downtrend.
It is now clear that SPX 1993 was a complex Int. A,
SPX 2082 completed Int. B,
and Int. C has been underway,
for the past three days,
for the Major wave 2 downtrend.
This correction has certainly taken longer than expected.
At today’s low the market could have completed a flat:
1993-2082-1990.
Or it could extend into a zigzag with equal A and C waves:
1993-2082-1971 ?
The short term MACD is already oversold,
like it was during Int. ii and Int. iv
of Major 1, and Int. A of Major 2
Short term support is at SPX 1990/1993 and 1973 pivot,
with resistance at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2044/46.
Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at today’s low.
Best to your trading this volatile market!
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: bull market
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V should carry the market
to All time New Highs.
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: bull market
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V should carry the market
to All time New Highs.
Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454
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