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Re: sulaco post# 246107

Friday, 12/18/2015 2:45:42 PM

Friday, December 18, 2015 2:45:42 PM

Post# of 347009
Joe, thanks for your response:

I actually agree with you - PPHM could indeed be acquired - particularly if by GILD - just not for the $86 dollar per share price you suggested yesterday - and certainly not with such a small stock for stock component. But should the offer sweeten significantly as you suggest below - then yes, I believe they would likely have a deal {although of course I'm assuming you intended to say 100% of worldwide rights to Bavi - and not 50%} In fact, there could easily be less cash involved if the stock component were 1:1 as you suggest.

I expect CASH and STOCK for ALL of PPHM. But, OK James, let's replay your numbers:

CEO John Martin of GILD says, "OK, let's move." He offers $20 Billion for 50% {100%} of worldwide rights to Bavi plus a 1:1 stock exchange. (The float for GILD is 1.44 billion shares, so he'll have to offer 300 million shares, i.e. 20% of the company). Unlikely in my estimation, but I like your optimism.

Joe Six-Pack is going to pass out when this hits his portfolio: He'll get $66 per share from the $20 Billion, = $4.3M, plus 65,000 shares of GILD for a value of $6.63M (based on today's GILD pps of $102), plus appreciation of his GILD shares (at $345 pps in 3 years), which gives him $15.79M more, PLUS the annual dividend of $1.72/share for every GILD share (as North40000 stated, likely to increase in the future)

So Joe Six-Pack is looking at $4.3M + $6.63M + $15.79M + dividends = $26.72M for an original investment of 65,000 shares of Bavi. This would clock out at Bavi today at $411/share.



Joe, I like your optimism as well - although a GILD share price of $345 a share in JUST three years post acquisition sounds like it could be a tad aggressive - but then who knows {see below}. GILD did indeed increase its market cap by over five fold in just three years after the Pharmasett acquisition - so maybe you could be right - and Joe Six-Pack will be passing out once again - but quite happily I'm sure :)

Well, King did mention the word "astronomical."



Enjoy the rest of your day.

James
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